- Chamath Palihapitiya believes Bitcoin will climb above $500,000 by October 2025.
- Palihapitiya highlighted an ongoing BTC commercialization.
- The VC predicts many countries will adopt Bitcoin as a second currency.
Canadian-American venture capitalist (VC) Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Bitcoin will climb above $500,000 by October 2025. Through a video, Palihapitiya cited historical data to explain BTC price trends after each halving event. His analysis was based on the first 18 months after each halving, enabling him to forecast the next target for the leading cryptocurrency.
According to Palihapitiya, Bitcoin generates the bulk of its returns between 12 and 18 months after a halving occurs. He observed a pattern where investors assess the immediate aftermath of a halving event, likely trying to gauge its impact on the crypto market.
The VC noted that the assessment period could last up to three months post-halving, after which Bitcoin typically experiences astronomical rallies. He explained that the rallying phase could last between six to eighteen months.
Meanwhile, Palihapitiya highlighted a diminishing return in Bitcoin’s surge rate. He showed that the cryptocurrency surged 45.52x after the first halving. The surge rate dropped to 27.92x after the second halving, while the third halving resulted in a 7.8x return for Bitcoin. It is important to note that the analyst’s observation is based on Bitcoin’s price at the time of halving, not from the cycle lows.
Notably, Palihapitiya believes the Bitcoin post-halving behavior is due to the increasing commercialization of the cryptocurrency. He thinks many countries will adopt Bitcoin as a second currency, especially for buying prominent assets with residual value. Based on his observation, he foresees Bitcoin replacing gold and becoming a viable currency for hard assets.
Bitcoin traded for $68,961 at the time of writing, according to data from TradingView. Palihapitiya predicts the price could surpass $500,000 by October 2025 if it follows the same pattern as the last two halving events.
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