- Polymarket traders are predicting a 74% chance that President Trump’s tariffs will be deemed illegal.
- President Trump’s tariffs have been questioned as to whether they followed constitutional rules.
- Tariffs may top $300 billion, but a court ruling could trim 2026 revenue.
Market traders are predicting a 74% chance that the Supreme Court will rule against President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Supreme Court has set February 20, 2026, as its next opinion date, with additional sessions scheduled on February 24 and 25.
Markets Argue That President Trump Failed to Follow Protocol
Ahead of the Supreme Court’s ruling on President Trump’s tariffs, Polymarket traders are leaning toward a potential nullification of the import taxes. Moreover, lower courts have questioned whether President Trump followed the United States Constitution to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Notably, the plaintiffs have argued that President Trump did not get proper authorization from Congress to implement the sweeping tariffs. The group of importers, small businesses, and twelve U.S. states, who filed the lawsuit against President Trump, have challenged the legality of the tariffs.
The tariffs implemented under President Trump have been condemned by most businesses as a burden. Furthermore, American importers have experienced extreme market uncertainty due to the unending trade wars.
What is At Stake?
According to data from USAFacts, the United States federal government collected $194.9 billion in the fiscal year 2025 through tariffs and other customs duties. In the Financial year 2026 through December 2025, the United States federal government collected $90 billion through tariffs, which is 332% higher than the same period last year.
Given current trends, the United States federal government is projected to collect more than $300 billion in customs duties. However, if the Supreme Court rules against President Trump’s tariffs, the revenue collected through customs duties will significantly decline in 2026.
Expected Market Implications
The ruling by the Supreme Court on President Trump’s tariffs is highly anticipated by the crypto and stock markets. Furthermore, its implications will be far more important to retail investors in the coming years.
Essentially, small businesses and importers will have more funds to invest in the undervalued assets, led by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), if the Supreme Court overturns President Trump’s tariffs. However, if the Supreme Court upholds President Trump’s tariffs, the government would likely continue collecting elevated customs revenues, preserving a significant source of federal income rather than reversing those inflows.
Nonetheless, such a ruling would put more pressure on a market that is already under immense uncertainty due to trade wars.
Related: Trump Tariff Hike on South Korean Imports Raises New Trade Tensions
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