- Bitcoin exchange reserves hit multi-year lows, signaling a potential supply squeeze.
- Long-term holders remain strong despite short-term losses, suggesting no confirmed bear market.
- MACD flips bullish while Fib levels hint at a breakout above $88,000 toward $100,000.
Since early 2023, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have been in free fall, plunging from around 3.2 million BTC to just 2.4 million BTC—a low not seen in years. This steep drawdown signals that investors are pulling their BTC off exchanges, preferring private wallets over exchanges.
This kind of outflow usually aligns with long-term holding behavior and, historically, has often come before major bull runs. Simply put, fewer coins on exchanges means less supply available to sell, as per the data provided by Crypto Banter.
And when you combine that falling supply with signs of increasing demand, it’s why some analysts believe Bitcoin could be targeting a breakout above $90,000.
Interestingly, the price has climbed from $16,000 in early 2023 to its current $84,000 while the reserve steadily declined. Yet, despite this increase, the reserves show no signs of reversing.
What Does Holder Behavior Reveal About Market Health?
Glassnode’s latest report adds another layer of critical information. Short-term holders (STHs), who bought BTC in the last 155 days, are sitting on sizable unrealized losses.
The “Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown” has surged to levels typically seen at the onset of bear markets.
Related: Schiff to Give Bitcoin Conference ‘Reality Check’ Similar to 2006 Warning
However, the more crucial signal—the capitulation of long-term holders (LTHs)—is absent.
“Historically, substantial expansions in unrealized losses among long-term holders have often marked the confirmation of bear market conditions.”
In simpler terms, STHs are hurting, but LTHs remain unshaken. Until they start seeing losses, historical precedent suggests that a full-blown bear market hasn’t been confirmed yet.
What Do the Technical Charts Indicate for Bitcoin?
The MACD just flipped bullish with the blue MACD line crossing above the signal line. Momentum is shifting back in the bulls’ favor, and a continuation of this crossover could fuel an upward breakout.
Currently trading at $84,600, BTC rebounded substantially from its recent low of $74,400. The key targets include 0.786 Fib: $85,726 (current hurdle) and 1.0 Fib: $88,804 (major resistance).
Related: Bitcoin Mining Power Soars Past 1,000 EH/s, but Miners Struggles Intensify
Further targets are set at 1.618 Fib: $97,693, 2.618 Fib: $112,078, 3.618 Fib: $126,462, and 4.236 Fib: $135,551.
The key takeaway for traders: a daily close above $88,800 could confirm the next leg up toward $97,000 and eventually six figures if momentum continues. But failure to reclaim $85,700 decisively could mean more sideways action—or even a retest of the $81K–$78K zone.
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