ENA Price Prediction May 2: $30M Token Unlock Could Drive Short-Term Dip

• Ethena will unlock 94.19M ENA tokens on May 2, worth $30.3M or 1.7% of its market cap
• RSI and MACD hint at short-term optimism, but support near $0.3193 is now under pressure
• A second unlock on May 5 will release 171.85M ENA, raising fears of cascading sell pressure

Ethena’s native token, ENA, is facing significant bearish pressure shaping its price prediction heading into a large token unlock planned for May 2, 2025. The release of 94.19 million tokens (0.63% of total supply) is a key factor influencing ENA’s near-term market outlook.

The estimated value of the unlocking is $30.3 million, amounting to 1.7% of ENA’s market cap. Token unlocks often introduce new supply into circulation, which can depress prices if demand doesn’t keep pace.

The May 2 unlock will be followed by an even larger unlock on May 5, releasing 171.85 million ENA (1.15% of total supply), valued at $55.28 million or 3.09% of the market cap. These back-to-back releases raise serious concerns about near-term selling pressure.

Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals Cloud ENA’s May 2 Price Outlook

From the recent low at $0.3018 to the local high at $0.3253, ENA has retraced and bounced precisely around the 0.618 level ($0.3108), a key zone that often marks strong support. 

The price currently trades at $0.3217, close to the 0.236 retracement level at $0.3193, indicating a modest recovery. However, the inability to reclaim $0.3253 would confirm a local top and possibly signal further downside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is 54.34, a neutral level indicating room for price movement in either direction. The RSI has trended higher recently, which might point to short-term buying activity, potentially related to the unlock event or a broader relief rally.

Related: Token Unlock Calendar May 2025: Key Dates for WhiteBIT, SUI, PYTH, Aptos

Additionally, the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, and histogram bars are turning green—typically a bullish indicator. While this crossover could hint at continued upward momentum, the MACD is still hovering around the zero line, meaning the momentum is not strong enough to rule out a reversal.

ENA Price Prediction: Scenarios Following the May 2 Unlock

With $30.3 million in tokens entering circulation on May 2 and a larger wave coming just three days later, market participants may preemptively sell or avoid aggressive long positions. 

A key downside scenario in this ENA price prediction: If the token breaks below $0.3193 support after the May 2 unlock, a move toward $0.3108 (0.618 Fib) or $0.3068 (0.786 Fib) becomes more likely.

Related: USDe Operations Shift to BVI as Ethena Closes German Subsidiary

On the other hand, if market sentiment holds and buyers absorb the unlocked supply, ENA could reclaim the $0.3253 high. A breakout above this level may open the door to a move toward $0.335 or beyond.