- Lee Jae-myung is leading S. Korea’s presidential race with a 96.8% chance on Polymarket.
- The June 3 election is pivotal for crypto policy; 36% of eligible S. Korean voters own crypto.
- Candidates propose pro-crypto measures like spot Bitcoin ETFs and improved bank access.
Lee Jae-myung is emerging as a frontrunner for South Korea’s 2025 presidential election, according to trader sentiment on Polymarket. As of this press time, the Democratic Party candidate is leading at 96.8% per share, reflecting a 96.8% market-implied chance of victory.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users bet real money on future events. Each “Yes” share pays out $1 if the event occurs and nothing if it does not. The closer the price is to $1, the higher the market’s confidence in that outcome.
Meanwhile, the pricing does not reflect polling or vote share. A common misconception is that a 97-cent “Yes” price equates to 97% of expected votes. In reality, the figure reflects the collective probability, as perceived by market participants, that Lee will win the election.
For example, even if a candidate is expected to win narrowly, a high “Yes” price could still apply if traders believe the outcome is all but certain.
Related: South Korea Targets Crypto Money Laundering with New Customer Verification Measures
Other potential candidates lag significantly in the market. Kim Moon-soo, associated with the People Power Party, has a 3.2% chance of winning, while Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party trails with just 0.6%. As of now, more than $173 million has been wagered across all candidates.
What Does This Mean to the South Korean Crypto Market?
The upcoming South Korean presidential election, scheduled for June 3, 2025, could be pivotal for the country’s cryptocurrency industry. With more than 16 million South Koreans, roughly 36% of eligible voters invested in digital assets, crypto policy is a central campaign issue.
Leading candidates across party lines are proposing sweeping changes to crypto regulation in an effort to appeal to this growing voter base. Their platforms include legalizing spot Bitcoin ETFs, expanding bank access for crypto exchanges, and even integrating virtual assets into government pension investments.
Related: Hyperithm CEO Joins Trump Dinner, While South Korea’s Foreign Workers Embrace Stablecoin Payrolls
The election’s outcome is expected to shape South Korea’s regulatory stance for years to come. Candidates are advocating for the repeal of restrictive banking rules, the development of a won-pegged stablecoin, and stronger oversight of cross-border crypto transactions. While a crypto tax is currently deferred until 2027, a new administration could revisit the timeline.
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