- Bloomberg ETF analysts have raised their approval odds for multiple spot altcoin ETFs to 90%.
- The updated forecast includes funds for XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL).
- The change is driven by increased positive engagement between issuers and the SEC.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have dramatically raised the odds for the approval of multiple spot crypto ETFs–including those tied to XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA)–to an overwhelming 90% or higher.
The analysts’ increased optimism is based on mounting signals of constructive engagement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suggesting a potential regulatory thaw is underway.
Analysts Cite Positive SEC Engagement
The primary driver for the revised forecast is an increase in back-and-forth communications between ETF issuers and SEC staff. “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion,” Seyffart wrote on X.
He cited a surge in technical filings, such as 19b-4 acknowledgements and S-1 amendment requests. These exchanges are viewed by market watchers as critical steps that typically precede a final approval from the regulator. The new projections from Bloomberg also include a 90% or higher likelihood for Litecoin (LTC) and Solana (SOL) ETFs.
Related: XRP ETF Approval Odds Hit 90% as Teucrium XRP Futures ETF (XXRP) Hits $122M in AUM
Prediction Markets Show Bullish Odds
The new projections from Bloomberg place not only XRP, DOGE, and ADA above the 90% likelihood mark, but also include Litecoin (LTC) and Solana (SOL). The only notable laggard is SUI, with analysts assigning it just a 60% chance of ETF approval due to regulatory uncertainty and lack of regulated futures markets.
Related: Ripple-Backed XRP ETF Now Trading on Toronto Stock Exchange With Zero Fees
Market sentiment among bettors is even more bullish. On prediction platform Polymarket, XRP’s chances of securing a spot ETF approval by year-end are pegged at 98%, while SOL is seen at 91%, and DOGE sits at 71%, strong odds that mirror rising retail and institutional enthusiasm.
Key Altcoin Developments
The forecast comes as key altcoins show divergent fundamental and technical signals.
Cardano (ADA), despite recent price setbacks, appears to be regaining investor favor. A new poll conducted by TheBlockchainMedia on X saw Cardano receiving over 56% of more than 7,000 user votes when asked which altcoin has the strongest bullish potential, outpacing even XRP, which garnered just 20% of the vote.
This positive sentiment toward Cardano may be partially driven by recent developments in the ecosystem. ADA-based cloud infrastructure project Iagon has revealed a high-profile collaboration with Ford Motor Company, which will serve as an advisor.
The partnership aims to address enterprise data management issues using decentralized tools–a move that could significantly enhance ADA’s real-world utility and visibility among traditional industries.
Technical Outlook: SOL in a Fragile Zone
Meanwhile, technical analyst Efloud warns that Solana (SOL) may face near-term headwinds. With Bitcoin (BTC) consolidating and Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) on the rise, altcoins like SOL could struggle to maintain momentum.
Key support zones at $123 and $116 could serve as turning points if bearish momentum continues, with $140 acting as a crucial resistance/support flip zone. While SOL remains part of the broader ETF optimism, its technical structure suggests caution for short-term traders.
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