- The Pivot: The Federal Reserve ends Quantitative Tightening on Dec 1, stopping the liquidity drain.
- The Setup: LINK and ADA have reset to September 2019 valuations against Bitcoin, signaling a bottom.
- The Data: Chainlink reserves added 89,000 tokens, confirming institutional accumulation.
Crypto markets are readying for a decisive macro pivot this Sunday, December 1, as the Federal Reserve is scheduled to officially end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.
The move, which stops the monthly runoff of Treasury securities, effectively turns off the “liquidity vacuum” that has suppressed risk assets for two years. Analysts argue this policy shift, combined with on-chain accumulation, has aligned altcoins in a market structure nearly identical to the pre-bull setup of late 2019.
Related: Bitcoin and XRP Stabilize as Wall Street Prices in 85% Chance of a December Rate Cut
In a Thanksgiving video, Gambardello argued that the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening cycle, now only days away, could mark the beginning of a wider shift in liquidity conditions and risk assets like crypto could benefit.
The Macro Mechanism: QT vs. PMI
The key, he said, is the relationship between QT, liquidity pressure, and the global manufacturing cycle. QT, which drains liquidity from the system by shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, is expected to conclude before manufacturing activity (PMI) crosses back above the expansion level of 50.
Every time this combination has appeared in the past, crypto markets have followed with strong upside moves. When PMI expansion begins, risk assets move, Gambardello said while giving the example of the 2019 liquidity reversal.
LINK Swims to the Top
Gambardello focused on three tokens, Chainlink, Cardano and XRP analyzed their long-term BTC pairs rather than short-term dollar charts. LINK/BTC, he noted, is sitting in almost the identical range it held when QT ended in September 2019.
Back then, LINK traded between $1 and $2 and today it sits near $13, yet its on-chain risk score is only 25, far below the 50–60 range seen during the previous cycle.
Also, the Chainlink Reserve, which functions as a long-term accumulation mechanism, confirmed that it added another 89,079 LINK this week, bringing total holdings to 973,752 tokens.
ADA and XRP: The ‘Structural Reset’
ADA/BTC is now trading in the same zone as it was during the 2019 liquidity shift, with price behavior following a similar path. ADA was worth just four to five cents at that moment and today it trades around forty cents while its risk score remains at 20, exactly where it sat as the previous cycle turned.
Gambardello described this as “end-of-bear-market territory” and said that ADA’s current weakness is similar to a late-cycle reset rather than a massive pullback.
XRP’s Unique Position
Garbardello said that during the last QT end, XRP failed to outperform Bitcoin because of its ongoing SEC battle. Now, with the regulatory pressure resolved, XRP/BTC is sitting at the same structural level it held in 2019, but without the legal overhang that capped its prior performance.
XRP has spent nearly a year consolidating around the $2.20 range and formed a “powerful technical base” at the exact time macro conditions are turning. Its risk score of 39 is higher than ADA’s and LINK’s, but historically still within the bullish range that allowed XRP to rally from 20 cents to over $3 during the 2017 cycle.
Related: XRP Supply Shock: 430M Tokens Exit Exchanges as Price Targets $2.60
Additionally, a separate TradingView model published by the chartist NeverWishing claims that XRP could reach a high of $1,115.
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