- Altcoin Season Index score of 24 confirms May 2025 remains a Bitcoin-dominated market cycle
- Bitcoin dominance strengthens as altcoin market cap dips below $1.1T amid capital rotation
- Traders track BTC to altcoin ratio chart for signs of a 2025 altcoin rally breakout trigger
Bitcoin’s tight grip on the crypto market continues, with a key measure confirming an ongoing ‘Bitcoin Season’. The Altcoin Season Index registered just 24 out of 100 as of 00:38 UTC on May 6, according to CoinMarketCap data.
The reading falls below the level required to signal the beginning of an altcoin season, where a broad range of alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin.
Index Score Confirms Bitcoin Season
The Altcoin Season Index offers market insight by tracking the 90-day performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) compared to Bitcoin.
A score hitting 75 or higher indicates an ‘Altcoin Season,’ where altcoins broadly outperform Bitcoin. A score of 25 or lower confirms a ‘Bitcoin Season.’ The current reading of 24 clearly places the market in Bitcoin Season territory.
Altcoins Still Lag Despite Small Index Rise
While the index showed small gains recently, climbing from a yearly low of 12 on April 26, through 16 and 18, to the current 24, it remains far too low to signal an incoming altcoin surge. Despite this increase, the general trend suggests that investor capital concentrates on Bitcoin.
For its part, the altcoin market cap has declined from over $1.3 trillion in February to under $1.1 trillion in early April, aligning with the index’s drop to a yearly low of 12 on April 26.
Historical Chart Shows Possible Turning Point
Even as current conditions favor Bitcoin, a specific chart analysis shared by crypto analyst Sensei is capturing trader interest.
This analysis plots the historical Bitcoin-to-altcoin ratio (from 2017 projected to 2026). It highlights a recurring pattern: major altcoin rallies often ignited just after this ratio touched a critical long-term trendline, usually marking an end to Bitcoin’s dominance phases.
Related: Bitcoin Struggles at $95K: Will Altcoins Surge as Dominance Declines?
Past Cycles Offer Clues for Today
Sensei’s chart identifies examples from cycles in 2018 and 2021. In both instances, the ratio meeting the trendline (marked with red ovals on the chart) served as a bottom signal for altcoins relative to Bitcoin.
Strong gains for many altcoins followed these points. The analysis includes a projection suggesting the current timeframe, around May 2025, could represent another such potential turning point.
Chart Shows Potential, Not Guarantee
Adding intrigue, the shared analysis includes a projection showing potential returns exceeding +14,500% in the next altcoin rally, based on how past cycles unfolded.
Related: Altseason Looms as Bitcoin Holds $90K and Analysts Spot Classic Breakout Signals
While this figure is not attributed to any specific assets, it shows the historical structure of past market shifts and is gaining traction among crypto traders.
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