- Bitcoin hasn’t entered its usual parabolic bull phase—yet.
- Altcoin market remains compressed, showing no clear breakout or crash.
- In past cycles, altcoins rallied months after Bitcoin’s breakout.
While Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market continues its steady rise, one indicator is beginning to flash green for what might come next. The total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum has shown a reversal. This suggests that capital might slowly be rotating into altcoins, a classic early sign that an altcoin season could be loading.
Bitcoin’s Historical Patterns Hint at What’s Ahead for Altcoins
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a clear pattern during its bull runs. In both the 2017 and 2020–2021 cycles, the asset quickly surged into parabolic rallies after breaking its all-time highs.
By comparing those past cycles to the current one, a major difference stands out: Bitcoin hasn’t made its parabolic move yet. Instead, it’s been consolidating around its all-time high level for several months — something that hasn’t happened in previous cycles. In past bull markets, this stage was typically brief before prices took off rapidly.
This extended period of sideways movement hints that the current market cycle is behaving differently, and it may be gearing up for something big— both for Bitcoin and for altcoins.
Related: Why The Next Altcoin Season Could Be the Biggest Ever
Altcoin Market Still in Compression Phase
A look at the Total Market Cap excluding Bitcoin shows a clear picture of what’s happening with altcoins. The market remains in a state of intense compression — a tight range where prices have neither broken out nor crashed. This pattern has persisted for months, frustrating many traders and investors.
During previous cycles, altcoins didn’t immediately rally after Bitcoin’s breakout. For example, in December 2020, when Bitcoin was breaking all-time highs, the altcoin market was still far below its previous peak. The real altcoin rally began months later, in early 2021, after Bitcoin reached higher risk levels on technical indicators.
Low Bitcoin Risk Score Suggests Altcoins’ True Rally Yet to Come
Currently, Bitcoin’s risk level remains relatively low compared to past bull markets. The Bitcoin Risk Model — which measures market overheating — is sitting at 56, far below the levels seen in previous explosive rallies. In past cycles, altcoin seasons started when Bitcoin’s risk level pushed into the 80s and 90s.
The market may still be in a pre-bull market phase, with altcoins patiently waiting for their turn. Altcoin season hasn’t arrived yet, but multiple signs say it could be loading.
Related: Bitcoin Pulls Back After Trump Tariff Shock, But Bullish Trend Holds
Bitcoin’s unusual cycle behavior, combined with anticipated monetary policy shifts and sustained altcoin market compression, paints a picture of a market quietly preparing for its next phase.
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