- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin at $250K by EOY 2025, $1M by 2028, citing US debt.
- Hayes expects a selective altcoin season by Q3, with Ethereum outperforming Solana.
- He links BTC’s rise to Treasury actions, market liquidity; holds 20% gold.
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 before the end of 2025 and $1 million by 2028.
Speaking at Token2049 in Dubai, Hayes largely attributes these optimistic targets to an anticipated expansion of U.S. government debt, a consequent increase in market liquidity, and potential shifts in political leadership.
Hayes Links Bitcoin Surge to US Debt, Treasury’s Liquidity Measures
Hayes elaborated on the U.S. fiscal situation, noting the Treasury’s reliance on non-traditional methods, such as drawing down the Treasury General Account (TGA) and employing “Extraordinary Measures,” to sustain government operations without issuing new debt that would breach the current debt ceiling.
The TGA, he pointed out (with information reportedly shared by sources like @WuBlockchain on X), reportedly dropped from $750 billion to $450 billion in Q1 2025. He further observed that while net new borrowing is restricted, total government spending is outpacing prior years, marking a 22% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
This growing deficit, Hayes argued, will inevitably compel the Treasury to issue more debt, thereby introducing new liquidity into the financial system. He believes this monetary expansion closely mirrors Bitcoin’s market behavior, citing April 9 as the asset’s recent local bottom. According to Hayes, this liquidity cycle could propel Bitcoin significantly higher within the current year.
Related: Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin? Michael Saylor Offers Perspective on Long-Term Value
Selective Altcoin Season Expected by Q3, Conditions Apply
Regarding the broader crypto market, Hayes expects an altcoin season to commence by Q3 of this year. However, he stipulated that Bitcoin first needs to surpass the $110,000 mark and achieve trading volumes indicative of a price range at or above $150,000–$200,000 before altcoins truly begin their ascent.
He also cautioned that the upcoming altcoin season is unlikely to replicate the explosive, broad-based rally witnessed in 2021. Hayes stated that not all altcoins are positioned for growth, especially those with high fully diluted valuations, low float, and minimal user activity. He emphasized that only assets capable of outperforming Bitcoin will prove attractive for capital deployment in this particular cycle.
Ethereum May Outperform Solana in Coming Years, Hayes States
Hayes also shared his outlook on Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), projecting Ethereum may deliver stronger gains over the next 18 to 24 months. Despite some negative sentiment currently surrounding Ethereum, he noted that it remains the most secure proof-of-stake blockchain and continues to lead in developer activity and total value locked. In contrast, while acknowledging Solana’s strong past performance, Hayes suggested new capital would likely favor Ethereum moving forward.
Related: “Rich Dad Poor Dad” Author Predicts $250K Bitcoin in 2025
In addition to his views on digital assets, Hayes also shed light on his personal investment strategy, revealing that gold amounts to about 20% of his investment portfolio. He holds both real gold and gold mining stocks, citing robust central bank demand and potential dollar depreciation as key motivating factors. In his estimation, gold could reach a value between $10,000 and $20,000 throughout the current financial cycle.
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