- Anthony Pompliano says Bitcoin is oversold and due for a September rally.
- Historical Q4 strength and Fed rate cut speculation support a bullish outlook.
- The analyst predicted a major rally ahead, but dismisses $1M Bitcoin this cycle.
Anthony Pompliano has predicted that Bitcoin will begin rallying in September. Speaking on CNBC Thursday, he pointed to Bitcoin’s oversold state and historical trends showing stronger performance in autumn.
Pompliano emphasized September and October timing in relation to Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving cycle and suggested the combination creates favorable conditions for price appreciation. He noted that market participants return from summer breaks and become more active during September, driving increased buying activity.
Historical Seasonality Patterns Support Bullish Outlook
Bitcoin’s historical performance shows Q3 as the weakest quarter since 2013, averaging just 6.02% returns, while Q4 delivers the strongest performance at 85.42% average gains according to Coinglass data. Pompliano argues this pattern creates self-fulfilling expectations as investors position for anticipated Q4 strength.
The strategist believes that when people expect historical patterns to repeat, it encourages preemptive buying behavior. Market participants who anticipate a strong Q4 performance begin accumulating positions in late Q3.
Bitcoin recently reached new all-time highs of $124,128 on August 14, just over one week ago, before retreating to current levels. This recent peak provides technical support for Pompliano’s thesis about oversold conditions creating buying opportunities.
Rate Cut Catalysts and Institutional Demand
Speculation around the September 17 Federal Reserve rate cut could provide additional momentum for Bitcoin’s anticipated rally. Pompliano highlighted how lower interest rates typically benefit risk assets like cryptocurrency by reducing the opportunity costs of holding non-yielding investments.
Treasury firms raising additional funds to purchase Bitcoin could increase institutional demand during the seasonal upturn. These corporate buying programs often provide sustained price support beyond retail trading patterns.
Pompliano was skeptical that Bitcoin would hit $1 million this cycle, despite his optimistic September prognosis, but he insisted that it would eventually reach that amount. According to Pompliano, the ideal circumstances for Bitcoin’s next significant rally phase are created by a confluence of technical oversold conditions, resuming market activity, and historical seasonal strength. However, his tempered long-term expectations suggest current cycle gains may be more modest than some projections indicate.
Related: How a Mere 1% Shift in Retirement Funds Could Send Bitcoin to $175k
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