- Arthur Hayes says this time altcoins will run because real users are paying for real services, not because of airdrops or low-float VC games.
- He contrasts DeFi summer and the 2023 to 2024 VC cycle with 2025’s emerging projects that share revenue with token holders.
- He thinks once U.S. macro noise around Trump’s second term settles, these cash-flowing altcoins can drive a more durable rally.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes laid out why he thinks the next altcoin season will look nothing like the last two cycles. In a recent interview he said the market is finally getting projects that were actually built for customers, that charge for usage and that pass value back to token holders. He called this the real altcoin season because it would be driven by paying clients instead of by liquidity stunts, which makes it more sustainable for traders.
Related: Here is Why Investors Expect an Altcoin Season to Happen Soon
Earlier Altseasons Ran On Narratives, Not Customers
According to Hayes, decentralized apps (DeFi) are designed to generate cash flow via disintermediation and reward token holders, which did not happen in previous cycles. Instead, most of the products had no clients and were not market fit.
Hayes noted that many “successful” altcoins from the past did not return value, including those that attracted users with tokens before crashing, during the DeFi summer of 2021. The crypto market analyst highlighted a different scenario that happened between 2023 and 2024, when Venture Capitalists (VCs) hyped prices via high TVL/low float.
Why Hayes Thinks 2025 To 2026 Will Be Different
In Hayes’s opinion, the crypto market is about to experience something different and more sustainable. According to him, the real altcoin season is emerging, considering that standout projects in the current dispensation have paying clients and share profits with token holders. The analyst believes in a new era in the crypto market, particularly for investors, who he says are having evolving expectations as the new issuance market matures.
It is worth noting that the 2025 altcoin market has triggered a significant level of mixed feelings, particularly among retail investors. There have been multiple phases of volatility, mainly triggered by external macroeconomic factors. Trump’s emergence as a second-term President of the United States is at the epicenter of events affecting the global financial market, including the cryptocurrency sector.
Macro And U.S. Politics Still Weigh On Sentiment
The current administration’s perceived affinity toward cryptocurrency development boosted users’ confidence in the early stages. However, its alternative policies across other sectors of the economy, amid sociopolitical division within the US legislation, have caused panic among investors, leading to a notable level of unpredictability in the market.
Nonetheless, Hayes remains confident about a more stable market in the future. From his analysis, it is clear that he expects the dust to settle and the market to pick a direction backed by projects with paying clients.
Related: 2025 Altcoin Season: Why Analysts Say the Next Crypto Rotation Is Near
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