- After a 230-day wait, Bitcoin is looking for a catalyst for a major BTC breakout toward a $160K target
- The July 15 US inflation report is the key event that could trigger a Federal Reserve interest rate cut
- Historical data shows Bitcoin tends to rally ~50% after similar long consolidation periods
The crypto market is at a turning point, with all eyes now on July 15th’s U.S. inflation report. The latest US jobs data came in stronger than expected, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate cuts. But according to analyst Ran, inflation numbers could still open the door for a rate cut this month, a move that might trigger a big Bitcoin rally.
Why The Jobs Data Shook Bitcoin
On Friday, the US reported 147,000 new non-farm jobs, beating expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate also stayed low at 4.1%, versus an expected 4.3%. A strong labor market usually means the Fed won’t rush to cut interest rates, and that’s why Bitcoin’s price briefly dropped from $110,000 to around $109,000 after the report.
The next big event is the US inflation report on July 15th. If inflation drops to around 2.3%–2.4% or lower, there’s a chance the Fed could still deliver a rate cut this month. The analyst said that would be a huge boost for risk assets like Bitcoin and could fuel a rally past its all-time highs.
Related: Whales Are Buying Again: 3 Coins They’re Stacking for 2025
Bitcoin’s $160,000 Breakout Target
Bitcoin is currently forming a breakout pattern. The price has been ranging around $109,000–$112,000 for over 230 days, and historically, similar long sideways periods have been followed by sharp moves higher.
Data shared by CryptoCon shows that during this bull market cycle, Bitcoin tends to rally around 50% after breaking out from long consolidation phases. If the same pattern plays out again, it would send Bitcoin’s price towards $160,000 in the coming weeks.
Adding to this, Bitcoin typically performs well in the third quarter of post-halving years like 2024. In past cycles, Q3 returns after a halving have averaged around 49%, supporting the case for a strong move soon.
What’s Next for Bitcoin and Altcoins
As Bitcoin tests key resistance levels, altcoins like Ethereum have already started showing strength. Ethereum crossed $2,625, shrugging off the jobs data and hinting that a broader market rally could follow if Bitcoin confirms its breakout.
Related: Bitcoin’s Bullish Blueprint: Two Analysts, One $120K Target
If inflation numbers come in lower than expected and Bitcoin clears resistance at $112,000, the market could quickly turn bullish, with price targets ranging from $150,000 to $160,000 in the short term, and possibly $250,000 by year-end.
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