Bitcoin Low Volatility: BTC in “Calm Bull Run” as Volatility Hits 10-Year Low

• Bitcoin’s current weekly volatility has dropped into the bottom 5% of the last ten years
• Analysts attribute the low volatility to the growing influence of institutional investors and ETFs
• Despite new all-time highs, Bitcoin’s price has seen far less of the wild swings of past cycles

Bitcoin’s current rally to new all-time highs is occurring with unusually low volatility, according to a new analysis from Ecoinometrics. The provided heatmap shows that over the past two and a half years, Bitcoin has surged to a series of new all-time highs without the wild price swings it used to have.

Historically, bull markets were characterized by sharp, unpredictable fluctuations, while in this cycle, volatility is drifting downward, even through the latest high in July and the recent pullback.

Just How Calm Is This Bull Run?

Bitcoin’s current weekly volatility now sits in the bottom 5% of readings over the past decade, which is an exceptionally calm bull run.

For instance, from late 2024 to July 2025, Bitcoin’s price jumped from around $70,000 to over $115,000. What’s unusual is that this big increase happened without the crazy price swings of the past, suggesting that the Bitcoin market is getting more stable and predictable.

Also, the CME VIX (volatility index) declined into July, aligning with a seasonal pattern that typically precedes an August surge in volatility, yet Bitcoin remained relatively stable during this phase.

Possible reasons why volatility has dropped

The main reason for low volatility is likely because big companies and professional investors are getting involved. Their influx is helping curb the volatility driven by speculation.

Then, as Bitcoin evolves into a more mature asset class, its heightened liquidity (fueled by ETF-backed capital and corporate reserves) is making it less susceptible to sharp price swings triggered by retail panic.

Additionally, with a more conservative approach in futures markets, the level of leverage has decreased. This translates to fewer chain reactions of forced selling, which in turn makes the price fluctuations of Bitcoin less wild and more stable.

Sign of a More Mature Bitcoin Market?

Several weeks ago, analysts Marion Laboure and Camilla Siazon at Deutsche Bank highlighted that the shift toward ETF inflows, corporate treasury buying, and regulation has contributed to Bitcoin behaving more like a mature, regulated asset rather than a speculative spot commodity.

In the end, this is good news for crypto because reduced volatility suggests more predictable behavior, and as such, might be a future sign for other cryptocurrencies to follow.