- A sharp divergence is emerging between Bitcoin-holding companies like Semler and Metaplanet.
- Investors are punishing firms that trade below their Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).
- Japan’s Metaplanet is succeeding after acquiring 10,000 BTC with sharp execution.
A stark divide is emerging among public companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheets. As BTC hovers near all-time highs, investors are rewarding firms with aggressive yet well-aligned BTC strategies, while penalizing those perceived to be mismanaging treasury growth or shareholder value.
The divergence is being reflected not just in price charts, but in company fundamentals, most notably in the growing focus on market cap to net asset value (NAV) ratios.
Case Study in Dilution: Semler Scientific Trades Below Its Bitcoin Value
Semler Scientific, a medical tech company that pivoted to a Bitcoin treasury strategy in May 2024, has found itself in a troubling position. Despite acquiring 3,808 BTC worth approximately $404.6 million, its market cap has dropped to $434.7 million, placing its multiple of NAV (mNAV) at a concerning 0.821x.
In simple terms, the market is valuing Semler below the worth of its Bitcoin holdings. That’s a red flag for investors, as VanEck’s head of digital assets, Matthew Sigel, emphasized this week.
Related: Raoul Pal’s Bitcoin Price Model: Is Global Liquidity the Real Market Driver?
According to Sigel, no public BTC treasury company has sustainably traded below NAV, until now. He warned that equity issuance at or near NAV is not strategic capital formation but extractive dilution.
- Sigel recommended immediate reforms for BTC-treasury companies:
- Pause share issuance if trading below 0.95x NAV for 10+ days.
- Prioritize stock buybacks when Bitcoin appreciates, but stock price lags.
Launch strategic reviews, including potential mergers or strategy sunsets, if NAV discounts persist.
Executive compensation, he added, must be tied to NAV per share growth–not just how much Bitcoin a company holds. “Once you’re trading at NAV, shareholder dilution is no longer strategic. It’s extractive,” he warned.
Case Study in Success: Japan’s Metaplanet Soars on Sharp Execution
On the other hand, Japan’s Metaplanet is turning heads for all the right reasons. On June 16, the firm’s stock surged 24% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange after it announced the acquisition of 1,112 more BTC for $117.2 million, bringing its total holdings to 10,000 BTC. The milestone, initially targeted for year-end, was achieved within just six months.
Related: Bitcoin’s Shaky Comeback: Will It Break $108K or Crash Again?
With an average purchase price of $94,697 per BTC, Metaplanet’s position is up a staggering 266.1% year-to-date, reflecting sharp treasury execution and exceptional timing. The company’s Bitcoin investment now totals $947 million. Its stock has responded accordingly, surging 425% year-to-date and boasting 2,000% gains over the past year.
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