- Bitcoin bounced $96K this week while Fear and Greed turned neutral.
- BTC has yet to price the risk of US-Iran tensions leading to oil price surges.
- Bitcoin OI has crashed a massive 30% since October.
Bitcoin is holding above $96,000 after a sharp weekly rally, up about 1% on the day and roughly 6% on the week. The level to watch is $95,000. A clean hold keeps structure intact. A drop opens room for a deeper pullback.
The total crypto market cap jumped nearly 5% to $3.25 trillion before stalling. Prices now sit at multi‑month highs, but there is a lack of follow‑through demand. Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap data shows that the Crypto Market Fear and Greed Index has turned neutral at 54.
Macro Calm Is Fragile
Risk sentiment outside crypto softened. The price of metal pulled back, and oil fell after the US indicated a possible delay in military action against Iran. On the other hand, Asian equities slipped. US equity futures stumbled as traders rotated out of tech.
Any damage in US-Iran relations could quickly push oil higher and tighten risk across assets. Bitcoin has not priced that risk yet.
Related: Bitcoin Two-Month Highs at Risk Amid Tariff and Fed Shocks
Leverage Has Been Flushed
Bitcoin derivatives open interest is down roughly 30% from October. The deleveraging has removed excess risk from the system. Total BTC open interest now sits near $65 billion, down from over $90 billion at the peak.
Rallies with falling open interest usually mean shorts are closing, not longs piling in. That makes the move cleaner, but also thinner. The recent push into $96K came from a short squeeze on low futures volume, not strong spot demand.
Options positioning shows heavy interest at the $100,000 strike, with about $2.2 billion in notional value. Traders want upside, but do not have the necessary risk appetite yet.
According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, the spot market has started to turn optimistic while Binance and aggregate exchange CVD metrics are turning bullish once again.
Crypto exchange Coinbase was posing a major sell-side pressure but now has eased on selling, Glassnode said. The platform also added that “aggressive accumulation typically seen during full trend expansion phases.”
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: $603M Short Squeeze Powers Push Toward $96K Resistance
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