- Bitcoin dominance pauses at Fibonacci levels, targeting 66% soon.
- Ethereum’s fair value and altcoin rally depend on conditions.
- Bitcoin’s price may reach $120K-$170K if macroeconomic conditions stay stable.
Right now, one of the biggest things traders are watching is Bitcoin dominance, and how it’s moving through some pretty familiar patterns. Bitcoin dominance seems to follow certain patterns, especially when it hits key Fibonacci levels.
When it reaches these levels, it usually pauses for a bit before continuing to rise. The next target could be around 66%, which lines up with a trend seen in Bitcoin pairs.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes this could be a short-term goal and might even represent the peak of the cycle.
Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and Why the Next Move Could Be Big
He also tracks a metric that combines Bitcoin dominance with USDT and USDC dominance. In the last cycle, this metric peaked at 75%, and it could do the same this time.
He believes once quantitative tightening winds down, we’ll probably see a big shift across the crypto market. Until then, Bitcoin’s dominance could keep climbing, leaving altcoins stuck waiting for their turn.
Ethereum and Altcoins: Still on Hold — For Now
Switching over to Ethereum, Cowen points out that it’s recently come back to its fair value. Historically, Ethereum has risen during Bitcoin’s bull runs, but it’s often been bleeding against Bitcoin. If Ethereum can hold its ground and altcoins can perform well, then an altcoin rally might be possible in the future.
But again, he stresses that it’s all about timing, which will be marked by a change in monetary policy or when Bitcoin’s dominance starts to stabilize.
The Four-Year Cycle: Still Holding Strong?
When asked about the relevance of the four-year cycle, Cowen believes it’s still a valid framework—especially regarding Bitcoin’s lows. Historically, the lows have occurred every four years. He expects the next low for Bitcoin around late 2026.
But predicting the peak within each cycle is harder. Bitcoin has typically seen peaks about a year before its cycle lows. If this pattern holds, the top could be in 2025, but Cowen doesn’t see Bitcoin reaching $300K this cycle.
Where Bitcoin Prices Could Be Headed
Cowen predicts Bitcoin’s top will likely be in 2025. If the broader economy stays strong, the market could see Bitcoin push past its previous highs, with a potential top between $120K to $170K. But for that to happen, the macroeconomic environment must hold up—unemployment rates need to stay low.
Bitcoin’s future is closely tied to the broader market and macroeconomic conditions. The S&P 500 could provide clues—if it continues rising, Bitcoin might follow suit. But if the S&P 500 stumbles, or if economic cracks start to show, that bullish setup could get derailed fast.
At the end of the day, Bitcoin’s next big moves aren’t just about crypto anymore. They’re increasingly tied to how the bigger economy holds up — and that’s something every trader needs to watch.
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