- Bitcoin’s death cross fails to trigger a bounce, similar to the January 2022 bear market.
- BTC falls below 50-week SMA, with the last breakdown leading to a 66% drawdown.
- Over 102,900 whale transactions exceeding $100K were recorded this week.
Bitcoin has formed a death cross without causing the typical bounce. This has raised concerns that the $126,000 top is already in. Analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted that the 50-day moving average has dropped below the 200-day moving average, but the price failed to rebound as it usually does.
“This is an indicator that the BTC top is already in at $126k,” Colin stated. He identified only one other time Bitcoin exhibited this behavior: January 14, 2022, right after the 2021 peak, when the bear market was beginning.
Historical Parallel Suggests Extended Correction
Colin described this as the closest parallel to current conditions in terms of Bitcoin’s reaction timed with the death cross. “This is another clue the BTC top is more likely already in than not,” he explained.
The analyst still expects a relief rally over the coming months but believes it may be just that: a bear market relief rally rather than a climb to new all-time highs. Bitcoin price is down 11% over the last seven days and almost 15% in 30 days.
Analyst Ali added that Bitcoin has fallen back under the 50-week simple moving average. “The last breakdown from here led to a 66% drawdown,” Ali warned. This technical level has historically served as a critical support-turned-resistance during bear market conditions.
Santiment data reveals Bitcoin whales have become increasingly active as prices declined over the past six weeks. This week has seen over 102,900 whale transactions exceeding $100,000 and over 29,000 whale transactions exceeding $1 million.
Whale Behavior Shifts From Selling to Accumulation
“This week has a good chance of ending up as the most active whale week of 2025,” Santiment stated. The analytics firm noted that the context of these whale moves is gradually turning from dumping to accumulating again.
The change in whale behavior suggests large holders are beginning to position for potential recovery, though the timing of any reversal remains uncertain. Historically, increased whale accumulation during drawdowns has preceded major bottoms, but can also occur during multi-month bear market corrections.
Whether Bitcoin repeats that pattern or establishes a bottom near current levels depends on factors including macroeconomic conditions, institutional demand, and regulatory developments. The failure to bounce from the death cross removes a signal that typically provides short-term support.
Related: https://coinedition.com/abu-dhabi-fund-triples-bitcoin-exposure-to-500m-ahead-of-market-dip/
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