- Bitcoin rallies as markets predict an 87% chance of a December Fed rate cut.
- Analysts expect BTC to retest at $100K if liquidity improves post-rate decision.
- Tom Lee now expects Bitcoin to reclaim a $126K peak, with a cautious macro outlook.
Bitcoin is regaining strong upward momentum as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December intensify across financial markets. Traders now assign nearly an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, signaling a major shift in macro sentiment.
This renewed confidence follows weeks of mixed data, yet market participants now believe the Fed will finally ease policy. Besides, liquidity expectations are improving, which is strengthening support around the $90,000 region.
Rate-Cut Odds Improve Crypto Sentiment
Market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket now show rate-cut expectations above 80%. CME’s FedWatch tool also places the probability near 87%. The ongoing scenario reveals a limited room for a policy hold in December. Larger cuts remain unlikely, with minimal positioning around a 50-basis-point move.
Lower rates typically weaken the dollar and increase liquidity. Hence, Bitcoin often benefits first when markets anticipate easier policy. The current structure reflects this trend, as BTC recently stabilized near key support.
Moreover, analysts now expect a retest of the $100,000 zone if the Fed confirms a December cut. After the recent volatility, some traders view it as an opportunity for a powerful upward price movement.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Buyers Hold $90k as Whales Flip To Aggressive Accumulation
Analysts Split on Short-Term Targets
Market commentators continue to watch the macro shift closely. Dr. Whale expects Bitcoin to attempt a push toward new records if liquidity rises. He believes stronger inflows could fuel a move between $130,000 and $150,000 within months.
His outlook reflects growing confidence that demand will improve as borrowing costs fall. Additionally, he notes that investor behavior often changes quickly when rate expectations shift.
However, other analysts show more caution. They warn that BTC must clear resistance levels before any aggressive rally. Significantly, liquidity conditions still depend on the December decision. Any delay could slow the market’s momentum and trigger consolidation.
Tom Lee Adjusts His Long-Range View
Tom Lee offered a more tempered forecast this month. He no longer highlights his earlier $250,000 target for 2025. Instead, he expects BTC to reclaim the October peak near $126,200.
He still believes Bitcoin can finish the year above $100,000, though he notes that macro conditions must remain supportive. Moreover, he argues that stronger institutional activity could push demand higher during the next cycle.
Related: Bitcoin Hits $91K Once More: But How Long Can Rally Hold Above Key Support Zone?
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