- Analysts say the U.S. dollar index (DXY) remains the swing factor for Bitcoin’s direction into year-end.
- Bitcoin’s July peak at $125k lacked signs of a final top, with liquidity trends pointing to a peak closer to mid-2026.
- A breakout above $115,940 could open higher targets.
Bitcoin enters the final quarter of 2025 after a volatile September, with analysts debating whether the asset can catch up to the broader crypto market’s gains.
Historically, Q1 and Q4 have been strong periods for digital assets. But as Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, explained, the path forward depends less on seasonal charts and more on the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Related: Bitcoin Faces Conflicting October Outlooks as Analysts Debate ‘Rektober’ vs. ‘Uptober’
The dollar’s role in Bitcoin’s path
“The dollar is the swing factor,” Coutts said. While central banks have begun cutting interest rates, those moves only provide marginal liquidity support. True market direction, he argued, comes from balance sheet expansion and the behavior of the dollar index (DXY).
The DXY saw one of its steepest declines in decades earlier this year, one of the reasons Coutts turned bullish in April.
Now, with the index stabilizing around the 98–99 range, he believes the next move, either a retest of 101 or a breakdown below, will be decisive for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Portfolio Positioning Into Year-End
Coutts keeps Bitcoin as the anchor of his portfolio, but he has been steadily allocating into smart contract platforms since March. His focus is on networks showing strong growth in settlement volumes and fees, such as Solana, Sui, Hyperliquid, and Tron.
While Tron carries reputational risks tied to Justin Sun, Coutts pointed out its consistent on-chain growth and token buybacks as key drivers. Hyperliquid, an emergent platform, also holds a position in his allocation strategy.
As the business cycle expands, capital will shift from Bitcoin into altcoins, accelerating altcoin outperformance through late Q4 and into 2026.
Why the July move did not mark Bitcoin top
He explained that Bitcoin’s July peak around $125k did not show the usual signs of a major top, according to the Bitcoin Cycle Risk Score. Past cycle peaks were marked by extreme euphoria, surging funding rates, and heavy selling by long-term holders, none of which appeared this time.
While technical charts show bearish divergences that might suggest a top, the lack of a parabolic move and muted derivatives activity point instead to a slower cycle with more room to run. He said that global liquidity trends and central bank easing support the view that the true peak may come closer to mid-2026 rather than now.
As of now, Bitcoin is consolidating between support and resistance with no clear breakout yet. A move above $115,940 would strengthen the bullish case with higher targets in play, while a drop below $112,820 could point to more downside.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analysts Track $120K Resistance As Whale Outflows Persist
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