- Bitcoin options expiry hits $1.94B as price stabilizes near $72K amid shifting market conditions.
- Strait of Hormuz restrictions disrupt shipping, with over 600 vessels stranded despite the ceasefire.
- Grok AI sees 65% chance ceasefire holds short term, 20% chance of a long-term agreement.
Bitcoin hovered near $72,000 following a major options expiry, while geopolitical tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions signaled ongoing market uncertainty.
According to data shared by @BTC__options, 27,000 Bitcoin options expired on April 10, carrying a notional value of $1.94 billion. The put-call ratio stood at 0.71, while the maximum pain point was recorded at $69,000. In parallel, 151,000 Ethereum options expired with a notional value of $330 million, a put-call ratio of 0.77, and a maximum pain point level at $2,050.
Bitcoin options continued to dominate the derivatives market, holding more than 80% share. Open interest remained high in late April and late June tenors, with trading activity largely focused on April contracts. At the same time, implied volatility declined across major tenors, with Bitcoin IV falling to around 40% and Ethereum IV to approximately 60%.
Ceasefire Developments and Energy Disruptions
Market conditions were initially influenced by a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which helped Bitcoin break above its recent consolidation range. However, renewed pressure emerged after Iranian authorities announced restrictions on vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz, including requirements for permission to transit the route.
Shipping activity remained constrained despite the ceasefire. According to reports, only five vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, compared to 11 the previous day, while seven vessels transited on Thursday. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, were reported stranded in the Gulf region due to limited passage capacity.
Analysts indicated that daily transit levels could remain capped at 10 to 15 vessels under current conditions. Meanwhile, Grok AI’s projections estimated a 65% probability that the ceasefire would hold over the two-week period, with a 20% likelihood of leading to a longer-term agreement.
Price Action Signals Short-Term Volatility
Bitcoin traded at approximately $71,779 at the time of writing, reflecting a 0.37% increase over the past 24 hours. The price recovered after falling below $71,000, with intraday movements showing multiple peaks above $72,000 before consolidating. The market capitalization was recorded at $1.43 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume reached $39.67 billion.
Related: How Could the Iran–US War End? What Grok, Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT Say
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