Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders Show Record Conviction and Are Not Taking Profits

• Long-term holders defy norms by accumulating even as profits hit yearly peaks
• Spot ETFs drive a new cycle dynamic, reducing traditional sell-off pressure
• Volatility metrics diverge, hinting at potential sharp moves despite calm derivatives

As Bitcoin consolidates around the $108,400 level, on-chain data reveals a market in transition, where record-high retail optimism is clashing with the “atypical” and deeply convicted behavior of long-term holders. 

This would suggest that historical market patterns are being reshaped by the growing institutional investment sentiment. And while the price has seen a slight daily dip, it remains up over 4% on the week, holding strong after its recent push towards $111,970 all-time high. 

Retail Sentiment Hits 7-Month High

According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, social media sentiment for Bitcoin is overwhelmingly positive; the most optimistic it has been in over seven months. 

Historically, such high levels of retail “fear of missing out” (FOMO) can be a contrarian indicator, often marking local price tops. This time, however, the behavior of more experienced market participants tells a different story

“Smart Money” Shows Unprecedented Patience, Glassnode Data Reveals

According to data from Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) those who retain coins for more than 155 days are playing a dominant role. Despite recent profit-taking, the total supply held by these investors continues to grow. This defies typical late-cycle patterns, where LTHs usually offload large amounts of Bitcoin to secure profits.

Significantly, the net realized profit for LTHs recently peaked at $930 million in a single day. Normally, this would signal a top forming, but an even larger volume of coins is aging into LTH status. Consequently, this results in a net accumulation, forming what Glassnode describes as a “dual structure” of simultaneous profit-taking and long-term holding.

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This anomaly is widely attributed to institutional players and the growing influence of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. These entities often focus on long-term custody, which encourages broader holding patterns and reduces frequent trading behavior. Hence, the usual selling pressure seen in previous cycles is being countered by institutional accumulation.

Volatility Trends Paint a Mixed Picture

While price levels remain near record highs, Bitcoin’s volatility indicators are offering mixed signals. Realized supply density measuring how many investors bought near current prices has sharply increased. This clustering suggests that many market participants entered between $105,000 and $110,000, creating a highly reactive price band.

However, derivatives data tells a different story. At-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) continues to trend lower across various timeframes.

Related: Bitcoin Holders Show Record Conviction as Prediction Markets Price in a Calm June

This indicates that traders are not expecting major price swings soon. The contrast between spot market clustering and low derivatives volatility implies that sharp movements remain a possibility, especially if sentiment shifts.