- Bitcoin faces a major volatility event with the massive end-of-month options expiry approaching.
- The “max pain” price, where most contracts expire worthless, is located around $116,000.
- The expiry adds weight to a warning from Peter Brandt that BTC could be in a bearish pattern.
Bitcoin (BTC) bounced 2.1% over the past 24 hours to trade near $113,144, leading a mild rebound across the crypto market. But a legendary trader is warning this could be a deceptive rally. The move follows strong performances from altcoins like Solana (SOL), which gained over 5% to hit $211.4, and Cronos (CRO), which exploded 56.8% to $0.35.
According to market data from CoinGecko, Solana’s price has gained over 5% in the past 24 hours to trade at about $211.4 at the time of this writing. On the other hand, CRO price has rallied 56.8% in the last 24 hours to hover about 35 cents. As a result, the total crypto market cap edged 1.5% higher in the past 24 hours to hover about $3.99 trillion.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bulls Defend $110K but ETF Outflows Keep Pressure Ahead of Q4
What Is Peter Brandt’s Warning for Bitcoin?
Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt has signaled a midterm bearish outlook for Bitcoin unless the price reclaims the $117,570 support level.
His analysis aligns with his earlier prediction that Bitcoin would top out between $120k and $150k this cycle.
Source: Peter Brandt
Brandt highlights that BTC is trapped in a distribution phase following last weekend’s big sell-off. On the weekly chart, he cautions that Bitcoin could be forming a bearish double top pattern, which is coupled with a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
How Will Options Expiry Impact the Market?
This bearish outlook could intensify as the end-of-month options expiry approaches. For Bitcoin, the “max pain” price is around $116,000, where the largest volume of options contracts will expire. For Ethereum, the max pain price is around $3,800. These levels often act as a magnet for the price leading into expiry, suggesting potential for more volatility.
What Are the Big Macro Events to Watch?
The broader market now waits for next month’s inflation data and the FOMC report to decide on its next major move.
According to market data from Kalshi, traders are betting a 78% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps in September.
On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced there are 11 strong Fed Chair candidates, who will be interviewed after Labor Day, and shortlisted members presented to President Donald Trump. Notably, President Trump has gradually taken over the Federal Reserve, especially after the recent firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook on grounds of mortgage fraud.
The crypto market is also anticipating the U.S. SEC to approve several spot altcoin ETFs in the coming months. As a result, a prolonged market correction will end if institutional investors maintain the high demand. Furthermore, the Trump administration has pushed to enact clear crypto regulations as seen with the GENIUS Act.
Related: Ethereum Price Prediction: Can ETH Break $4,800 Resistance and Rally Toward $6,000?
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