- The Setup: Technical analysis suggests a potential retest of $83k to complete a “Wave 4” correction before launching to $155k.
- The Floor: Glassnode reports a record $732 billion in new capital inflows this cycle, creating a massive liquidity floor.
- The Trigger: A breakout above $103k is required to confirm the “Wave 5” expansion is underway.
Bitcoin (BTC) is initiating a high-stakes technical standoff above the $93,000 level, with market structure suggesting one final liquidity flush could precede a parabolic run to $155,000. While short-term friction persists, forensic on-chain data confirms that this cycle has attracted more capital than all previous crypto bull markets combined.
Analyst TARA’s chart shows persistent friction near $91.2k, the 0.236 Fib resistance. Until price holds above this level strongly, she argues that a drop to $83.6k–$83.3k is likely. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $93k.
According to the analyst, the $91.2k price level is very important and represents the area BTC narrowly defended during its prior pullback.
Related: Bitcoin’s Industrial Crunch: Miners Face ‘Survivorship Phase’ as Margins Collapse
A December Breakout
TARA’s wave count indicates an initial price increase toward the .5 resistance and 1.618 extension near $103k. From there, she expects a shallow Wave 4 pullback, followed by Wave 5 extension toward $110k.
She estimates that this five‑wave structure will play out through December and finally result in a completed macro Wave 1 that could ultimately carry Bitcoin toward $155.6k.
TARA’s chart shows multiple Fibonacci confluences cluster between $90k and $103k. RSI remains muted as investors wait for a bullish confirmation before going all-in.
Liquidity Trends Strengthen the Bullish Case
Swissblock added that every major liquidity breakdown over the past two years preceded multi‑week recoveries. With liquidity stabilizing, they view a bottom above $80.5k as increasingly secure.
Their model states that if liquidity turns upward, a recovery window remains open through mid‑December, similar to TARA’s predictions.
On the other hand, Glassnode reported that Bitcoin has drawn in more than $732 billion in new capital this cycle, surpassing all prior cycles combined. BTC’s 690% price surge has outperformed Ethereum and the broader altcoin market.
Spot volumes now range between $8 billion and $22 billion per day which confirms deeper liquidity. Glassnode also noted the expansion of real‑world assets on-chain, rising from $7 billion to $24 billion in a year.
As per analysts, December could deliver the breakout investors are waiting for once BTC breaks out above $103k and aims for $110k, ultimately completing a larger five‑wave expansion that targets $155k.
Related: Fed Ends QT As SEC Hands Crypto An Innovation Exemption Starting January 2026
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