- Bitcoin regains strength as renewed U.S.–China talks fuel market confidence
- Rising open interest signals strong bullish sentiment amid Bitcoin’s rebound
- On-chain inflows highlight renewed accumulation and improving investor outlook
Bitcoin’s price is showing a cautious recovery as traders respond to renewed optimism from both macroeconomic developments and technical signals. After retreating from its early-October high near $126,000, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) found stability around $100,000 and has since rebounded toward $111,000. The recovery coincides with expectations of renewed U.S.–China dialogue and rising speculative activity across futures markets.
Price Holds Firm Above Key Levels
Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart reflects a rebound phase after a steep correction that retraced almost 62% of its previous rally. The price has since reclaimed the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $110,580, supported by renewed buying near $106,000. This region remains crucial for sustaining momentum as buyers aim to push above the 100- and 200-EMA cluster between $113,000 and $113,500.
Significantly, a break above this zone could shift sentiment toward a stronger bullish continuation, opening the path toward $116,000 and $120,000. However, failure to maintain support above $106,000 may invite fresh selling pressure, potentially dragging prices back toward $100,000.
Besides the technical rebound, market activity suggests that traders are gradually regaining confidence. Bitcoin futures open interest rose to $69.13 billion on October 24, marking one of the highest levels this quarter. This growth indicates heightened participation and sustained leverage, often preceding major price moves.
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Rising Open Interest Signals Market Confidence
The consistent increase in open interest since mid-August highlights strengthening market sentiment. Traders appear to be building long positions as Bitcoin stabilizes above $110,000. Moreover, the derivatives market has shown improved liquidity, suggesting investors expect volatility ahead.
If open interest remains above $65 billion, it may confirm robust momentum and a potential breakout from the current consolidation range. Consequently, this metric could serve as a leading indicator for Bitcoin’s next major directional move, aligning with historical patterns seen during previous recovery cycles.
Renewed Inflows Reflect Growing Investor Optimism
Additionally, on-chain data shows improving inflows after months of outflows. As of October 24, Bitcoin recorded a net inflow of $40.64 million, signaling renewed accumulation near current levels. Earlier outflow spikes above $600 million coincided with price dips earlier this year, but the latest reversal implies a shift toward holding behavior.
The timing of this inflow aligns with growing optimism following confirmation that President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30 in Washington. The announcement lifted sentiment across global markets, with traders anticipating eased trade tensions. The event comes after the U.S. imposed steep tariffs on Chinese imports earlier this month, triggering volatility across risk assets.
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Technical Outlook for Bitcoin Price: Key Levels Ahead of November
- Upside Levels: $113,150 (0.5 Fib) remains the first major resistance, aligning with the 100-EMA. A breakout above this zone could open the path toward $116,243 (0.618 Fib) and $120,644 (0.786 Fib). Sustained momentum beyond $120,000 would expose the prior cycle high near $126,000.
- Downside Levels: $110,580 (0.382 Fib) serves as near-term support, followed by $106,235 (0.236 Fib). A breakdown below $106,000 could trigger a deeper correction toward $100,052—the previous structural low and key psychological barrier.
- Resistance Ceiling: The $113,000–$113,500 region, where the 100- and 200-EMA cluster, forms the critical ceiling for confirming medium-term bullish momentum.
Bitcoin’s structure shows consolidation between $106,000 and $113,000 after a steep retracement from $126,000. The short-term EMAs (20/50) are beginning to curve upward, indicating early recovery signs, though the broader trend remains capped below the higher moving averages.
Will Bitcoin Hold Its Ground?
Bitcoin’s outlook for late October and early November depends on whether buyers can maintain control above $110,000. A sustained close beyond $113,150 could confirm a short-term reversal and invite bullish continuation toward $120,000. However, losing $106,000 support would invalidate this setup and expose BTC to another test of the $100,000 base.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a pivotal consolidation zone. Increasing open interest above $69 billion and renewed inflows suggest rising market confidence, yet the price still needs decisive confirmation above the 100- and 200-EMA range. Traders continue watching for volatility expansion as global market sentiment improves ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting later this month.
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