- Polymarket users are betting on an 80% probability of the Bitcoin price dropping to $111,000 this month
- On-chain data shows waning demand from spot BTC ETFs, with a net outflow of $1.34B in August
- Selling from short-term Bitcoin holders has increased, adding to the bearish market pressure
Polymarket users are betting on a higher chance that the Bitcoin (BTC) price will continue in a mid-term falling trend.
As of Wednesday, traders have put more capital behind a continued BTC price drop in August compared to bets on a rebound toward a new all-time high.
Traders Bet on 80% Chance of a Drop to $111K
On the market for the question “What price will Bitcoin hit in August?”, traders have pushed the probability of BTC dropping to $111,000 to 80%.
In contrast, a separate market shows traders believe there is only a 29% chance of the price rallying to $125,000 this month, highlighting the current bearish mood.
Related: PlanB’s Bitcoin Model Shows Path to $500K After Record $115K July Close
Why Are Traders So Bearish on Bitcoin?
This sentiment follows Bitcoin’s struggle to regain momentum after hitting its all-time high of around $122,838 on July 14, 2025. While the flagship coin has recently rebounded from its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the mid-term bearish sentiment has been intensified by increased distribution from short-term holders.
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, short-term holders have been actively selling their Bitcoin. Meanwhile, long-term holders have largely remained steadfast, continuing to hold the asset as a hedge against inflation.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction for August 7
The ETF Effect: Institutional Demand Is Waning
The demand for Bitcoin by the spot BTC ETF issuers has declined in the recent past compared to the prior four months. According to market data from SoSoVaLue, the U.S. spot BTC ETF issuers have recorded a total net cash outflow of $1.34 billion in August compared to $18.8 billion recorded in the prior four months.
Historically, a decline in BTC demand from spot ETF issuers has been associated with a market drop and vice versa.
But Could History Offer a Bullish Surprise?
However, looking at Bitcoin’s historical performance offers a more complex picture.
According to market data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin price has recorded more choppy Augusts in the last 10 years but registered more than 65% gains during the 2017 crypto summer. With the 2025 bull market depicting a high correlation with the 2017 cycle, BTC price may rebound faster than most traders anticipate.
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