Bitcoin Price Prediction. Sellers Defend EMA Cluster As Fed Divide Keeps Bulls On Edge

• Bitcoin price today trades near $104,100, struggling below the short-term EMA cluster amid weak recovery attempts.
• Spot outflows of $56.25 million signal mild distribution, while open interest rose 0.52 percent as futures volume dropped.
• Fed’s divided stance on a December rate cut keeps risk sentiment fragile, with key support seen at $102,900–$100,000.

Bitcoin price today trades near $104,100, struggling to regain momentum after repeated rejections from the short-term EMA cluster and the mid-range Fibonacci zone. Despite a mild recovery, technical and flow data point to lingering bearish pressure as uncertainty over a potential December Federal Reserve rate cut keeps risk sentiment fragile.

Spot Outflows Confirm Weak Risk Appetite

Data from Coinglass shows $56.25 million in net inflows to exchanges on November 12, suggesting mild distribution as traders moved Bitcoin back into circulation rather than accumulation.

This continues a broader trend of net outflows alternating with small inflows over recent weeks, indicating that market conviction remains weak.

Open Interest Rises As Futures Volume Drops

Derivatives data highlights a subtle but meaningful shift in trader behavior. Total open interest rose 0.52% to $68.2 billion, while futures trading volume dropped 12.25% to $93.95 billion.

This divergence suggests new positions are being opened with lower conviction, possibly representing defensive hedges rather than outright longs.

The long/short ratio across major exchanges like Binance and OKX remains above 2.3, showing a continued bullish skew. However, with over $108 million in 24-hour liquidations—most of them long positions—the leverage buildup remains a vulnerability if price slips below short-term support.

If this imbalance persists, another wave of forced liquidations could accelerate downside momentum toward the next visible demand zone.

Bitcoin Faces EMA Rejection And Channel Resistance

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains trapped inside a well-defined descending channel that has guided price action since early October.

Price currently trades just below the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-EMA cluster, ranging between $104,000 and $108,500.

Each recent rally into this zone has faced rejection, confirming it as a strong ceiling that must be cleared to shift the short-term structure.

Fibonacci retracement levels reinforce this view. Bitcoin’s rejection near the 0.382 level ($105,449) and repeated failures around the 0.5 zone ($107,490) show sellers defending with precision.

Immediate support lies at $102,924 (0.236 retracement), followed by the psychological $100,000 mark, while deeper demand may emerge near $98,850—the lower boundary of the descending channel.

The RSI sits in a neutral zone, reflecting indecision, while momentum remains flat. Until a breakout occurs above $107,500, the setup favors consolidation or a retest of lower support levels.

Macro Pressure: Rate-Cut Divide Limits Upside

The Federal Reserve’s split over a December rate cut has injected fresh uncertainty into risk markets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign a 66.9% probability of a rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting, down from prior expectations of near certainty.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks that a cut “is not a done deal” further tempered optimism.

Analysts like Min Jung of Presto Research caution that even if a cut is confirmed, much of the optimism “may already be priced in,” implying limited near-term upside for Bitcoin unless liquidity conditions improve meaningfully.

Outlook. Will Bitcoin Go Up?

Bitcoin remains at a crossroads.

• Bullish case: A decisive close above $107,500, backed by rising volume and improved spot flows, could trigger a move toward $110,000–$112,400, aligning with the upper Fibonacci and channel resistance zone.
  
• Bearish case: Failure to hold $102,900–$104,000 could send price toward $98,800, where the next demand pocket aligns with the lower channel boundary.