- Fred Krueger sees Bitcoin reaching $1M, driven by long-term capital flows, not short-term cycles.
- He cites rising institutional inflows and ETF access as core drivers of Bitcoin’s next major surge.
- Krueger says Bitcoin’s fixed 21M supply and proof-of-work model support its long-term value thesis.
Bitcoin could be on a long-term path toward $1 million, according to mathematician and investor Fred Krueger, who argues that structural forces rather than short-term market cycles will determine its trajectory.
Speaking during a recent interview, Krueger said he expects Bitcoin to surpass the seven-figure mark in the medium term, dismissing technical trading patterns and four-year cycle theories as secondary to broader capital flows and monetary dynamics.
Bitcoin was trading just under $83,000 at the time of the discussion, down more than 5% over the past month. The pullback followed market volatility linked to the recent clarity vote and tightening financial conditions.
Institutional Capital and Long-Term Positioning
Krueger attributed Bitcoin’s long-term upside to what he described as a major migration of capital from traditional finance into digital assets. He said many investors underestimate the scale of institutional participation, particularly as exchange-traded products expand access to Bitcoin exposure.
Citing analysts such as Tom Lee and the stock-to-flow model popularized by PlanB, Krueger noted forecasts ranging from $200,000 to $500,000 in the coming years, with scenarios that could reach $1 million. However, he emphasized that his conviction is not based on short-term price targets but on long-term adoption trends.
Krueger, who said he has held Bitcoin since early 2019 without selling, stated that approximately 80% of his net worth is allocated to the asset. He argued that attempts to time Bitcoin’s market cycles often result in losses and pointed to historical drawdowns, including multiple declines exceeding 20% and the 50% drop in March 2020.
Related: Here’s the BTC Price for 2026, According to ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, and Grok
Volatility, Leverage, and Market Structure
Addressing recent turbulence, Krueger cited leverage in perpetual futures markets as a key driver of price swings. He referenced a major liquidation event on Oct. 10, when market makers were reportedly caught offside amid tariff-related news and developments surrounding MicroStrategy’s index inclusion. According to Krueger, the episode marked one of the largest flash crashes since the previous cycle.
Despite volatility, he rejected expectations of a systemic collapse in equities, arguing that investment in artificial intelligence could support broader economic growth. He also warned that holding large cash positions may expose investors to currency debasement over the next five to ten years.
Bitcoin’s Structural Design
Krueger distinguished Bitcoin from other cryptocurrencies by highlighting its fixed 21 million supply and proof-of-work consensus mechanism. He contrasted that with protocol changes on networks such as Ethereum, including the shift from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.
He described Bitcoin as decentralized digital hard money, stating that its issuance schedule cannot be altered. While acknowledging that other blockchains serve functions such as smart contracts and tokenization, Krueger maintained that Bitcoin’s monetary design underpins his long-term price outlook.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Stabilizes Near $70K as Bernstein Maintains $150K Outlook
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