Bitcoin Two-Month Highs at Risk Amid Tariff and Fed Shocks

• Polymarket prices have a 73% chance the Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs illegal.
• Trump warns refunds and compensation could exceed $600 billion and reach trillions.
• Crypto markets may swing as liquidity risks hit stocks and bonds.

Global markets, including crypto, face a volatile 24-hour period driven by major U.S. events. The Supreme Court is set to rule on Trump-era tariffs, followed by speeches from Fed officials. Investors are assessing risks tied to fiscal uncertainty and interest rate expectations.

Supreme Court Decision Puts Tariffs in Focus

At 10 a.m. ET, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration. The case has drawn significant market attention due to the scale of revenue involved and the potential consequences of an adverse decision.

Prediction market Polymarket is currently pricing a 73% probability that the court rules the tariffs illegal. Trump has repeatedly stated that the tariffs generated more than $600 billion in revenue for the U.S. Treasury. A ruling against the government could raise questions about whether those funds must be refunded.

In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump said the cost of repayment would be “many hundreds of billions of dollars,” excluding additional claims tied to investments made by companies and foreign governments. He warned that when those investments are included, total liabilities could reach “trillions of dollars.”

Refund and Compensation Risks Raise Fiscal Questions

Beyond tariff refunds, companies may seek compensation for costs incurred while restructuring supply chains to avoid tariffs. These include investments in new factories, plants, and equipment, as well as canceled contracts and delayed projects.

Trump described such a scenario as “a complete mess,” arguing that repayment would be extremely difficult and could take years to calculate. While legal experts say any refund process would likely be gradual and subject to further rulings, markets often react immediately to uncertainty.

Investors are now weighing how the Treasury would respond if repayment obligations materialize. Possible outcomes include increased debt issuance or changes to federal spending. Analysts say the lack of clarity has heightened concerns about short-term liquidity conditions.

Crypto Markets Track Broader Risk Sentiment

Cryptocurrency markets are closely monitoring developments. Bitcoin and other digital assets often react to macroeconomic news. Traders note that sharp moves in bonds or stocks could spill over into crypto as investors raise cash or reduce leverage. 

Market data shows trading volumes have picked up modestly ahead of the ruling. Notably, Bitcoin trades at $94,747 after a 3.0% increase over the past 24 hours. Earlier today, Bitcoin reached $96,600, its highest point since November 2025. Meanwhile, Ethereum gains 4.8%, now trading at $3,282, while XRP trades at $2.11, posting a daily gain of 2.7%. 

Analysts say the market focus is less on the removal of tariffs and more on the financial and fiscal consequences that could follow.

Federal Reserve Speeches Add to Market Sensitivity

At 12 p.m. ET, three Federal Reserve presidents are scheduled to speak, adding a second potential catalyst for markets. While such appearances are routine, their timing has increased their significance.

Investors are watching closely for comments on interest rates, inflation, and central bank independence. Changes in tone can quickly move bond yields, which often influence equities and crypto prices. Higher yields typically pressure digital assets, while dovish signals can provide short-term support.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: $603M Short Squeeze Powers Push Toward $96K Resistance