Bitcoin vs XRP: Which Coin Will Hit a New ATH First?

• Bitcoin fell 48% from $126K, but ETF inflows signal institutions are buying the dip again.
• XRP has dipped 70% from $3.65, yet ETF demand and whale accumulation are rising.
• BTC needs a 91% gain to hit ATH; XRP must surge 174%, making Bitcoin the favorite.

After explosive rallies in 2025, both Bitcoin and XRP have surrendered roughly half their gains. With prices still well below their peaks, investors are now asking a simple question: which asset will reach a new all-time high (ATH) first?

Bitcoin: Cycle Leader With Institutional Backing

Bitcoin reached a record $126,198 in October 2025. Since then, BTC has fallen 48% back to the $60,000 range amid risk-off sentiment in global markets.

Despite the correction, institutional appetite remains visible. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded fresh net inflows in recent sessions. On Thursday, Bitcoin ETFs saw $254 million in new investment. The move marked the third consecutive day of positive flow, ushering in over $1 billion in investment.

The latest figures suggest large investors are accumulating during the dip. Historically, Bitcoin has led crypto recoveries, often reclaiming key resistance levels before capital rotates into altcoins.

Some analysts warn that deeper downside risks are possible, with prices falling into the $40,000 to $50,000 range. Yet, bullish projections place Bitcoin well above its previous high in the next expansion phase. As the largest and most established crypto asset, BTC’s trajectory remains the primary driver of overall market direction.

Notably, from the current price of around $66,000, Bitcoin needs to surge by 91% to reclaim its all time high of $126,200. Interestingly, analysts at Bernstein and Citibank believe BTC could approach $150K to $200K this year.

XRP: Regulatory Clarity and ETF Momentum

After peaking near $3.65 in July 2025, XRP has fallen to around $1.10, representing a 70% loss. Its all-time high remains near $3.84 from 2018. Unlike previous cycles, however, XRP is now trading under improved regulatory clarity following the resolution of its long-running dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs in late 2025 added another structural tailwind, with sustained inflows highlighting steady investor interest. Specifically, XRP ETFs have attraded $1.24 billion in net inflows since November 2025. Among the biggest holders are Canary Capitals, with $270 million in AUM, followed by Bitwise, with $266 million in total XRP assets.

Whale accumulation has also increased in early 2026, with over $710 million XRP bought in January alone. This signals that large holders are positioning during the downturn.

From a technical standpoint, XRP has shown early signs of stabilization, though broader indicators remain mixed. Importantly, XRP would need to surge 174% from its current $1.4 price to reclaim its peak.

Essentially, XRP needs to roughly triple from current levels to set a new ATH, compared to Bitcoin’s need to roughly double.

Which Reaches a New ATH First?

Bitcoin retains the advantage of scale, liquidity, and a proven cycle structure. Historically, it is the first to recover and break into price discovery before the rest of the market follows.

XRP, however, has a smaller market cap and clearer regulatory footing than in past cycles, meaning strong inflows could move it faster on a percentage basis. Still, XRP’s price action remains closely correlated with Bitcoin. If BTC struggles, XRP is unlikely to break out independently.

In short, Bitcoin is more likely to reach a new ATH first based on historical patterns and market structure. But if institutional flows accelerate and macro conditions improve, XRP could close the gap faster than in previous cycles.

Related: XRP Price Outlook for March 2026 After Five Red Months — Reversal Ahead?