- Bitcoin faces repeated resistance rejections, raising risks of a pullback near $107,200
- Whale supply per holder drops to 2018 levels, signaling redistribution and reduced control
- Correction depth stays within norms, with 12% decline aligning to past bull market patterns
Bitcoin continues to test critical levels while showing signs of exhaustion at resistance. The world’s largest cryptocurrency traded at $111,018 as of press time, up 0.63% in the past 24 hours.
Its market capitalization now stands above $2.21 trillion, with trading volumes surpassing $47 billion. Yet beneath the surface, technical signals and on-chain metrics highlight growing challenges that could determine the next major move.
Rejection Signals from Key Resistance
Analyst Ali Martinez observed that Bitcoin recently touched the upper boundary of a descending channel near $110,700. This level has emerged as firm resistance, with multiple wicks forming at the boundary.
The repeated rejections suggest that buyers are struggling to gain momentum. Consequently, a pullback toward $107,200 appears likely. A deeper decline could even send the price closer to $103,000, making the current range crucial for near-term direction.
Related: Three Reasons Bitcoin Could Reach $200K by Late 2025
Whale Supply Decline Mirrors 2018 Levels
Besides technical rejection, supply distribution trends raise additional concerns. Glassnode data shows that the average Bitcoin supply per whale, representing holders with 100–10,000 BTC, has steadily dropped since November 2024.
The average now sits at just 488 BTC per whale, a level last seen in December 2018. Significantly, this decline contrasts with Bitcoin’s resilient price action above $60,000 in recent months. This signals redistribution, where whales appear to be reducing exposure while smaller investors and institutions absorb supply.
This trend can be both healthy and risky. On one hand, wider distribution supports market stability by reducing reliance on large holders.
If retail and institutional demand slows, the absence of whale accumulation could increase downside pressure. Key support remains around $58,000–$60,000, while resistance extends near $72,000.
Related: Market Stays Fearful, But On-Chain Data Shows This Could be the Bitcoin Bottom
Historical Correction Patterns Hold
Meanwhile, correction depth remains within historical norms. CryptoQuant analysis highlights that Bitcoin has not corrected more than 28% during the current bull market. The recent 12% drawdown from its all-time high near $123,000 fits well within typical ranges.
On average, severe pullbacks in this cycle have fallen between 20% and 25%. Hence, the latest move aligns with past behavior and may simply reflect a healthy reset of leverage and sentiment.
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