Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hints at ‘Balanced’ Price, but Is a BTC Rally Imminent?

• Whales holding 10–10K BTC have accumulated over 218,000 BTC since March.
• The MVRV ratio is rising and nearing its 365-day moving average.
• Bollinger Bands are tightening, hinting at an upcoming breakout.

If you’re looking at the Bitcoin price and notice sideways market, you’re only seeing half the picture. Beneath the surface, a combination of on-chain accumulation and technical consolidation suggests a major breakout above $120,000 is to happen soon. That is because the market has clearly entered a phase where institutional confidence and long-term investor patience are quietly building.

Bitcoin “shark” and “whale” wallets are in a buying frenzy

Here’s what the smart money is doing right now. Santiment data showed that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated over 218,000 BTC since late March, and that they now control more than 68% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply. 

Sustained accumulation like this from large holders typically occurs in periods of market consolidation, where those with deeper pockets load up ahead of a major rally. Historically, this behavior has preceded major bull runs.

Related: Strategy Acquires an Additional 21,021 BTC for Its $74B Corporate Treasury

BTC’s key valuation metric signals pre-bull run phase

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key metric used to determine whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, currently sits at 2.2 and is now converging with its 365-day moving average. This kind of convergence in previous cycles has often occurred right before the Bitcoin price began a major upward trend. 

Since the MVRV ratio below 1 is associated with market bottoms and anything above 3.7 often marks the peak of bullish phases, the current reading indicates that Bitcoin is neither overheated nor undervalued. 

Instead, it sits in a balanced zone where price discovery is likely to lean bullish if the broader trend holds.

Related: Bitcoin Dominance Rate Recovers From 1-Month Low; Is Altcoin Season Over?

What the chart says about Bitcoin’s next move

So, traders who need to know the key BTC levels for trading today should note that Bitcoin is hovering near the midline of the Bollinger Bands around $118,300, that’s your key short-term support. If it can hold that level and push toward the upper band near $119,900, momentum could shift decisively bullish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a healthy 59.13, indicating moderate strength without being overbought. The MACD, while showing a slight bearish crossover, remains in positive territory. 

What this tells us is that Bitcoin is likely in a transitional phase, consolidating its energy. If the price holds these current levels and breaks above the key resistance near $120,000, it could pave the way for a rally into the $125,000 to $130,000 range. 

On the downside, support near $116,750 remains critical, as a drop below that could temporarily stall the bullish momentum. However, given the ongoing accumulation, any such pullback is more likely to be a shakeout rather than a trend reversal.