- 30-year Treasury yield has surged by an unprecedented 56 bps in three days
- January 7, 1982 was the last time anything similar happened
- In the last 54 hours, the 30-year yield reached 5%
Recent developments in the US Treasury market have raised concerns among financial analysts and investors. Jim Bianco, a prominent market analyst, highlighted an exceptionally rapid surge in the 30-year Treasury yield, noting a 56 basis points (bps) increase over three trading days. Anything similar like this hasn’t been seen since January 7, 1982, when yields were 14%.
Bianco shared charts illustrating the 3-day change, showing recent volatility dwarfing historical norms. This likely suggests a forced unwind of the “basis trade,“ which is a strategy employed by hedge funds involving the simultaneous purchase of Treasury securities and the sale of corresponding futures contracts to exploit price discrepancies. Such an approach usually relies on substantial leverage and assumes stable market conditions.
Bianco argues that this move reflects systemic stress and not human decisions, as it occurred at midnight ET. He notes that such a historic shift points to a forced liquidation, rather than deliberate rate outlook decisions by fund managers.
Shortly afterward, Bianco reported the 30-year yield reaching 5%, up 67 basis points since the last 54 hours. He compares this to the 2022 Liz Truss crisis in the UK, where gilt yields surged 130 basis points in five days due to an aggressive fiscal policy.
Potential Triggers: Tariffs, Margin Calls, Foreign Selling?
Several elements might be the cause, but it all starts with the introduction of new tariffs by Donald Trump and his administration. They officially take effect today, which has probably heightened inflationary fears and raised concerns about reduced foreign investment in US bonds.
In addition, margin calls and increased volatility have compelled hedge funds to liquidate positions hastily, further destabilizing the market. There’s also some speculation about foreign entities, such as China, potentially reducing their US Treasury holdings, which has added to market apprehensions.
Whatever the precise trigger, the sharp rise in Treasury yields means falling bond prices. This could lead to increased borrowing costs for the US government, as well as possibly widening the federal deficit. Not to mention that the current market turbulence has drawn parallels to past financial crises, leaving people to wonder if maybe the central bank interventions will take place to stabilize the situation.
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