- Bitcoin trades above $112K, with September still tracking a green monthly close so far
- Analysts question the 4-year cycle, citing political shifts and looming Fed decisions
- Debate grows over a possible megacycle, with BTC holding key support into October
Analysts are questioning the sustainability of the traditional 4-year bull cycle of the cryptocurrency market.
In his latest podcast, one such analyst cited the unique behavior of Bitcoin in 2025, alongside developments in the broader mainstream financial market that have impacted the crypto market’s trend.
Related: Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Dead? Liquidity Now Rules the Crypto
September Bounce Still Standing
Despite highlighting the possibility of an overhaul in the crypto market dynamics, the analyst maintained that Bitcoin could retain its historical end-of-year rally for years when September ends in profit. According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin holds a 4.18% profit as of September 24, 2025, at the time of writing, while trading for $113,060.
Typically, a profitable September leaves Bitcoin with bullish momentum for the next couple of months. With less than seven days left in September, the flagship cryptocurrency is likely to end the month in green.
A historical analysis of Bitcoin’s quarterly returns reveals a similar pattern, where a profitable Q3 becomes the platform for a significant rally for the next quarter. For instance, Bitcoin surged 47.73% in Q4 2024 after a 0.96% profit in Q3 2024.
External influence is huge on the Bitcoin market
In the meantime, analysts scrutinizing the cryptocurrency market evolution believe ongoing developments could alter the ecosystem’s historical pattern. Typically, the cryptocurrency market peaks by the end of this year before embarking on a bear trend in 2026. However, developments within the financial sector are leading the analysts to think that the bull cycle will extend further.
Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz cited the growing independence of central banks as a crucial factor in the changing dynamics of the financial market. Novogratz expects the development to affect how the crypto market responds in the coming years. For instance, the renowned investor noted that Trump’s next pick as Federal Reserve chairman could kick off a mega cycle at a time when crypto usually slows down.
In Novogratz’s opinion, the political ecosystem is having a significant effect on the cryptocurrency market’s development, making it more complicated for the industry to maintain its historical trends and cycles.
Related: Bitcoin $200K, Ethereum $10K, Solana $1K, XRP $7 – Analyst’ Super Cycle Targets
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