- Bitcoin’s daily RSI is nearing “oversold” levels, a technical signal that has historically marked market bottoms
- Global M2 liquidity is rising, providing a macro tailwind that has historically fueled crypto rallies
- On-chain data shows institutions and businesses are still accumulating BTC, buying 4x faster than it’s mined
After a red August, a confluence of technical, macro, and on-chain indicators are now signaling that a crypto market rebound could be on the horizon for September.
While Bitcoin’s momentum is weak, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching historically significant oversold levels, just as global liquidity is rising and on-chain data shows smart money is still accumulating.
Is Bitcoin’s Chart Flashing a Technical Buy Signal?
The primary technical case for a rebound is based on Bitcoin’s RSI and its historical performance in September.
What is the RSI telling us now?
With Bitcoin trading around $109,682, the daily RSI sits at a weak 41.40, hovering just above the classic “oversold” threshold of 30. Historically, dips into this zone have marked major market bottoms and reversal points. While the MACD indicator remains bearish for now, the RSI is the key signal traders are watching for a potential bounce.
What is the historical pattern for September?
According to the Thinking Crypto podcast, Bitcoin has closed every August in the red during the current cycle. Each of these downturns has been followed by a period of renewed strength in September. The current pullback is mirroring this exact seasonal pattern, suggesting a bottom could be forming.
The MACD remains bearish, with the MACD line at -1910.20 below the signal line, which sits at -1,332.48, keeping the momentum negative.
Ethereum has also corrected but continues to outperform Bitcoin over recent weeks, with altcoins absorbing liquidity as Bitcoin dominance declines.
Are Macro Catalysts Aligning for a Q4 Rally?
Supporting the technical setup is a powerful macro tailwind: expanding global liquidity.
What is the M2 liquidity data showing?
Global M2 money supply data from both the U.S. and China is steadily rising. This is a key leading indicator, as historical trends show a direct link between expanding liquidity and rallies across risk assets like crypto and stocks.
Related: Crypto markets see broad gains, led by a 1,400% volume surge in CRO
What are the key macro events to watch?
Traders are also watching for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, a 90-day delay in the U.S.-China tariffs, and upcoming Senate votes on crypto legislation in October, all of which could provide additional fuel for a Q4 rally.
What Does On-Chain Data Show About Institutional Buying?
While short-term traders are cautious, on-chain data shows that long-term players are using this dip as an accumulation opportunity.
Are institutions and businesses accumulating?
Yes. Santiment data shows that wallets holding 10 or more Bitcoin continue to add to their stacks. At the same time, River Financial reported that businesses are purchasing Bitcoin nearly four times faster than it is being mined.
The episode also covered new treasury initiatives. Solana-focused DeFi Development Corp announced expansion into the U.K., marking the first move of its kind for a U.S.-based crypto treasury. In addition, Fortune reported that Elon Musk’s lawyer, Alex Spiro, is set to chair a Dogecoin treasury company aiming to raise $200 million.
What are governments and major treasuries doing on BTC?
El Salvador has redistributed its 6,283 Bitcoin across 14 wallets to reduce risks from potential quantum computing threats. Meanwhile, Japan Post Bank revealed plans to introduce a blockchain-based deposit token by 2026 to support the settlement of tokenized assets.
According to Edward, these developments, combined with technical and macro factors, signal that the market could establish a bottom in early September before entering a rally phase later in the month.
Related: Why This Bitcoin Bull Run Feels Different Than the Last Ones
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