- Cardano whales holding 100M-1B ADA have sold off 30 million tokens in the last seven days alone
- The selling comes as historical Bitcoin halving cycles suggest a market peak is due by October 2025
- Despite the whale sale, ADA has shown relative strength against peers like Avalanche and Dogecoin YTD
The crypto market has started September on an upswing, with total market capitalization climbing to $3.81 trillion after a 2.1% gain in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin led the charge, holding steady above $110,000, while Ethereum edged higher near $4,380. XRP made a 3% jump, and Solana added more than 7% in the past week.
However, analyst Ali Martinez has observed that at the same time, large Cardano holders offloaded 30 million ADA in just a week.
Is the Crypto Bull Market Nearing Its Peak?
The concern over the whale selling comes as the entire crypto market is entering a historically critical window.
What does the historical halving cycle suggest?
Historically, bull markets top out 12 to 18 months after the Bitcoin halving. That puts the peak window for this cycle squarely between August and October 2025, meaning we could be in it right now. If that timeline holds, the risk of a major downturn is getting higher every day.
What are the key market-wide technical levels?
The monthly Bollinger Band average for Bitcoin sits near $82,000, which means prices could drop nearly 30% and still remain in a bull market. However, the “Others” index, which measures smaller altcoins, is only about 10% away from slipping into bearish territory.
For more context: September Macro Outlook for Crypto: Why Data is Key
Should ADA Holders Be Worried?
The most specific warning sign comes directly from Cardano’s biggest holders.
How much ADA did the whales sell?
According to analyst Ali Martinez, wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA have sold or redistributed approximately 30 million ADA in the past week. This is a clear sign that some of the largest players are taking profits or de-risking their portfolios.
But is ADA actually underperforming the market?
Not necessarily. A look at the year-to-date performance shows that while Cardano is down about 3% since January, it has held up far better than peers like Avalanche (-32%) and Dogecoin (-30%). Its performance is roughly in line with Solana (+6%), suggesting it has shown relative strength.
What Are the Key ADA Price Levels to Watch?
For now, Cardano continues to trade sideways with no clear direction.
Where is the key support?
The main support range for bulls to defend is between $0.57 and $0.68. As long as ADA holds within this zone, buyers still have a chance to reverse the trend.
Where is the key resistance?
On the upside, the resistance sits around $0.94 to $0.95, and only a break above $0.88 in the short term would mean that trend is shifting back toward the bulls. For now, ADA continues to trade sideways, with no decisive sign of recovery.
Related: Why Tron Could Be the Dark Horse Altcoin of 2025
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