- The CEX and DEX funding rates of various cryptocurrencies indicate bearish conditions.
- Bitcoin trades around $82,000, facing resistance at the 20-day EMA at $82,213.
- The altcoin market cap excluding BTC shows signs of a reversal to $1 trillion.
The cryptocurrency market has been showing signs of increased strain this week with several factors weighing heavily on sentiment: ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, persistently negative derivative funding rates, and declining altcoin momentum.
What Are Funding Rates Signaling?
Data from Coinglass shows a consistent trend of negative or near-zero funding rates across both centralized (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX). Funding rates dropping below 0.005% are often interpreted as a bearish indicator, suggesting short positions are dominant and traders holding them are willing to pay a premium.
Looking at specific assets:
- ETH shows a funding rate of just 0.0066% on Bitget and -0.0031% on Vertex, a sign of market indecision with a slightly bearish tilt.
- SOL sees a mixed bag, with 0.0100% on Bitget—bullish—but -0.0062% on Vertex, reflecting hesitation.
- DOGE, a high-volatility asset, shows funding as low as -0.0104% on Vertex and -0.0655% on Crypto.com, signaling high short interest and potential for volatility.
While these conditions could spark sudden reversals like short squeezes, the current prevalence of neutral-to-bearish rates points to a market lacking strong bullish conviction and potentially liquidity.
Related: Crypto Market Rebounds Tuesday; BTC Eyes $80k, SOL/ADA/DOGE Post Big Gains
How is Bitcoin Holding Up Technically?
Bitcoin now trades around $82,000.60, roughly 9% spike in the past 24 hours, but nearly 2% on the week. The top cryptocurrency, though, is battling resistance at its 20-day EMA ($82,213) and its RSI hovers at 36.45, indicating it’s approaching oversold conditions.
The recent plunge below $75,000—for the second time this week—came after Donald Trump’s 104% tariff on China took effect, rattling global markets. This policy escalation triggered a risk-off mood, affecting both equities and crypto assets.
Adding to the selling pressure, institutional flows have turned negative. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) offloaded 3,296 BTC, contributing to $326 million in net outflows across all US Bitcoin ETFs—marking the third-largest outflow since inception.
Altcoin Market Cap Signals Further Downside
The total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin, currently at $883.64 billion, shows signs of entering a historically oversold zone, as seen in the Bollinger Bands and RSI indicators on the TradingView chart below. The RSI is sitting below 30, which often acts as a short-term bottoming signal.
Volume remains high, suggesting capitulation may be underway. The lower Bollinger Band is flattening while price hovers near its support, hinting at a potential bounce towards $997.59 billion.
Related: Engineered Recession Response? Theory Swirls as Tariffs Send Markets Reeling
If the altcoin market fails to reclaim the midline (20-day SMA), further downside toward $850 billion or even $800 billion remains likely. On the flip side, a confirmed reversal could push the market cap back toward the $1 trillion resistance.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
