- Peter Brandt, CEO of Factor LLC, suggests Bitcoin may have peaked.
- Brandt’s revised outlook is based on exponential decay theory.
- Bitcoin’s recent peak at $73,835 on March 14, 2024, aligns with Brandt’s observation.
Factor LLC CEO and popular chart analyst Peter Brandt revised his previously optimistic stance on Bitcoin’s trajectory. Brandt projected a bullish trend, suggesting that it would last until September 2025 and propelling Bitcoin to highs of $200,000. However, he now believes Bitcoin may have already peaked.
Brandt based his revised outlook on “exponential decay,” a statistical pattern referring to the consistent reduction of an amount by a set percentage over time. He observed that “Bitcoin has historically traded within an approximately 4yr bull/bear cycle, often associated with the halving events. There have been three major bull market cycles since the initial bull cycle and each cycle has been 80% less powerful than its predecessor in terms of the price multiple gained.”
Considering this pattern, Brandt argued that Bitcoin’s recent peak of $73,835 on March 14, 2024, fits the expected outcome of exponential decay. Hence, he opined that it could represent the maximum point for this cycle.
Bitcoin’s historical performance indicates a pattern of diminishing magnitude in its bull runs, accompanied by an exponential decay of approximately 80%.
After the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange in November 2022, Bitcoin saw a significant upswing, printing record highs above $73,000 in March. This surge represents a 79.1% increase from the preceding bear market low of $15,473.
In light of this, experts suggest that this may signal the conclusion of the current bull market, per the exponential decay theory. Nevertheless, it is essential to note that past trends do not definitively predict future outcomes.
Bitcoin Halving has historically supported bullish trends, with the most recent halving occurring on April 20. As a result, analysts suggest that Bitcoin is currently consolidating within the $60,000 to $70,000 range, anticipating this phase to culminate in a bullish movement. Based on Coinmarketcap data, Bitcoin trades at $62,382, reflecting a 2.04% intraday decrease.
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