- June CPI expected to rise, signaling inflation momentum may be returning quickly
- Bitcoin surges past $117K ahead of CPI, signaling crypto’s lead in market sentiment
- Tariffs add pressure to core goods, raising long-term inflation and Fed policy risks
Investors are on edge this morning as the crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The report could signal whether inflationary pressures are picking up again, particularly as new tariffs from the Trump administration begin to bite.
While Wall Street waits for confirmation, the crypto market has already leapt ahead. Bitcoin climbed to a new all-time high of $123,300 on Monday, with Ethereum and altcoins following closely behind. The CPI figures could either amplify this rally or spark a sudden cooldown. As prices and policy hang in the balance, markets are preparing for a volatile session.
The Numbers to Watch: Inflation Expected to Heat Up
Expectations point to a noticeable uptick in both headline and core inflation. Headline CPI is forecast to rise 2.6% year over year in June, up from May’s 2.4%.
Bloomberg data indicates that on a monthly basis, prices likely climbed 0.3%, a clear acceleration from the 0.1% increase in May. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise 2.9% annually and 0.3% monthly.
Related: US CPI and Core CPI DATA Will Drop Next Tuesday: Expect Major Volatility
In May, inflation cooled due to lower car and apparel prices. However, economists now believe that those declines were temporary. Used car prices are rebounding, and categories sensitive to global trade are beginning to reflect tariff impacts. As a result, June’s figures could confirm that inflationary pressures are returning, particularly in core goods.
The Tariff Factor and the Fed’s Next Move
New tariffs introduced by President Trump are beginning to reshape the inflation outlook. Duties ranging from 20% to 50% have been levied on a broad range of imports, including from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.
Additionally, more sweeping tariffs of 15% to 20% are being floated. These actions are triggering retaliation from trading partners and raising concerns over long-term price pressures.
Related: Analyst Forecasts Imminent “Altseason” Fueled by Key US CPI Data and Bitcoin Strength
For now, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady in its upcoming policy meeting. However, the next few CPI readings will be critical. Businesses have so far relied on inventory stockpiles to delay passing costs to consumers. As those buffers fade, prices could begin climbing more consistently.
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