- U.S. traders face nine Fed speeches, fresh tariff dividend talk and a 41 day shutdown overhang, all in one week.
- Fed pushed $125 billion through its SRF while bank reserves slipped under $3 trillion, setting up a liquidity swing.
- ETF approvals could move once the SEC is fully back online, keeping XRP and large caps in focus.
The crypto market is walking into a crowded macro week where policy headlines and liquidity shifts will matter more than chart patterns. Traders are watching President Donald Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend pledge, a 41-day U.S. government shutdown that still needs a final Senate clearing vote, and a series of Federal Reserve appearances that could explain why $125 billion was pushed through the repo window as bank reserves fell below $3 trillion. The setup keeps Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP exposed to sharp moves.
In an X post, The Kobeissi Letter outlined the events that could reshape global markets, including nine scheduled Fed speeches. With the US government shutdown now in its 41st day, the macro backdrop remains tense for BTC and the broader crypto market.
Tariff Dividend Meets Shutdown Fatigue
Trump said the United States is collecting enough in trade duties to send a $2,000 payment to qualifying Americans, excluding high earners, and to start shrinking the $37 trillion national debt.
The timing is sensitive because the long shutdown has frozen several federal functions, including routine SEC processing. ETF Institute co-founder Nate Geraci said once the government is formally reopened, the SEC can start moving the blocked spot crypto ETF applications again, with XRP seen as one of the likely early movers. A shutdown resolution therefore doubles as a market catalyst.
Fed And Treasury Liquidity Swings Back In
Market analyst Paul Barron called the current setup “wild” because the Fed just funneled about $125 billion through its Standing Repo Facility at the same time bank reserves dropped to the tightest level since January.
As the government reopens, the Treasury General Account can release cash back into the system, creating a snap from a liquidity drought to a liquidity flood. Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP usually perform better when dollars are being added, so traders are treating this week as a potential start for a relief phase.
Related: Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin’s Next Major Peak in Late 2025, Followed by 2026 Downturn
Barron said that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP typically thrive when liquidity conditions loosen, indicating increasing chances of a near-term relief rally.
On-Chain Stress Shows Room For One More Flush
On-chain analyst Darkfost revealed a market stress signal with the Short-Term Holders (STHs) Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio plummeting to 0.006, its lowest level of the entire cycle.
This means most short-term Bitcoin investors are now holding at deep unrealized losses, historically a setup for capitulation before a bullish reversal. Darkfost warned that while this metric alone cannot flip the market fully bullish, it has often preceded the early stages of major uptrends in prior cycles.
Related: Crypto’s Turning Point: Bitcoin Stability Meets Ethereum Expansion in Q4
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