Crypto Retreats as Geopolitical Tensions and ETF Outflows Hit Bitcoin

• Bitcoin fell as much as 27% in the past month before stabilizing around $68,000.
• U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $360 million in weekly outflows.
• Analysts cite geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty as key risks.

Bitcoin continued to weaken this week as global markets shifted into a risk-off stance. The token has now seen losses of 12% and 27% over the past fortnight and month, respectively, as it trades at $68,200 at press time.  The decline marks the fourth consecutive week of losses.

In recent months, Bitcoin has traded similarly to high-growth U.S. technology stocks. On Tuesday, it mirrored early losses in equities but failed to keep pace when stocks later edged higher. The divergence suggested more cautious positioning among crypto investors.

Market participants pointed to a retreat from risk assets. Rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran added to uncertainty across financial markets. Investors also debated whether the economic impact of artificial intelligence could extend beyond the technology sector.

Federal Reserve Outlook in Focus

Monetary policy expectations also influenced trading. Last week’s inflation data prompted resumed discussion about the timing and scale of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Paul Howard, senior director at market maker Wincent, said macro developments have closely shaped crypto performance over the past year. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate as traders wait for clearer signals.

Howard added that a pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, expected later this week, could carry more weight for markets than routine Federal Reserve meeting minutes or standard economic releases.

ETF Outflows Extend

Capital flows have remained a headwind. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a fourth straight week of net outflows. Investors withdrew $360 million last week, according to compiled data.

Notably,  yesterday saw another outflow of $104.87 million,  erasing the $15 million net inflow on Monday. The sustained withdrawals indicate reduced short-term demand from institutional and retail investors who use ETFs for exposure to digital assets.

Sentiment indicators reflect that caution. CryptoQuant’s Fear and Greed Index stood at 10 out of 100 on Monday, placing the market in what the firm categorizes as “extreme fear.” Such readings often signal heightened uncertainty, though they do not predict direction.

Debate Over a Price Floor

Analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin has established a durable floor. Many traders view $60,000 as an important psychological level. However, Robin Singh, CEO of crypto tax platform Koinly, warned that further macro shocks or prolonged weakness around current levels could trigger a sharper move lower.

“One macro wobble, another wave of uncertainty, or even just sustained chop in the mid-$60,000s could easily tip this into a sharper flush back into the US$50,000s,” Singh said. He added that current conditions do not resemble the broad capitulation seen at past cycle lows.

Institutional Positioning Mixed

Recent regulatory filings show varied institutional strategies. Harvard University reduced its bitcoin exposure in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The university sold about 1.5 million shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF.

Despite the sale, the position remains among Harvard’s largest holdings after Alphabet and gold. The university also initiated a stake in the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF, gaining exposure to ether for the first time.

Meanwhile, Dartmouth College increased its holdings of bitcoin and ether during the same period.

Investors now look ahead to policy decisions, geopolitical developments, and fund flows for direction. Until clearer catalysts emerge, bitcoin may remain sensitive to shifts in global risk appetite.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Consolidates Near $68K as Analyst Warns ETF Ownership is Hedged