- Experts predict a bull run pushed by institutional interest and demand in 2024.
- A spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC is expected to drive capital inflow into the crypto market.
- Experts estimate Bitcoin’s price could hit between $100K- $150K by December 2024.
In the past few weeks, the cryptocurrency market has seen a resurgence in capital inflow. Investors’ confidence appears to have increased as trading volumes soar and major cryptocurrencies peak annual highs.
Indeed, the majority of the push has come from increased speculations around a spot Bitcoin Exchange Trusted-Fund approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. While earlier discussions were on whether the regulator would make such an approval, a change of attitude at the SEC has now tilted conversations to when the market should expect the approval.
Bitcoin ETF: Institutional Interest to Inspire Bull Rally
With the market buzzing with excitement, a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is expected to significantly impact the crypto market. Matrixport noted this in a recent report where it said the next crypto bull market will be driven by increased institutional interest in the space.
Large institutional firms like BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, have filed to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs. Matrixport estimates that an approval could push Bitcoin’s price as high as $125,000 by December 2024.
Taking note of recent developments, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank reiterated their confidence that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. The firm joined Matrixport in predicting that the catalyst for the bull run would be an influx of spot bitcoin ETFs, which they expect would come sooner than expected.
Furthermore, they predicted Ethereum would also benefit from the price surge, as evidenced by increased activity around ETH ETF filings. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered said it expects that the next Bitcoin ‘halving’ scheduled to take place in late April 2024 will also be a driver for a price upsurge.
Along the same lines, Matrixport identified the Bitcoin halving as a catalyst, together with predicted interest rate cuts in the United States, which would significantly boost consumer spending. In addition, the firm said growing concern about the US debt-to-GDP ratio will push investors away from the dollar and into BTC to safeguard value.
A spot Bitcoin ETF remains one of the major catalysts identified to boost prices. Importantly, the digital asset is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. At present, data from cryptocurrency price tracker CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin has a market cap of $738 billion.
Bitcoin to drive broader market surge
Due to its market dominance, Bitcoin price gains and drops often determine overall market sentiment. During the 2021 bull market rally, BTC peaked at an all-time high price of $69K. At the same time, the whole cryptocurrency market peaked at new highs. In the same vein, a BTC decline is expected to drive prices down, as seen in previous bearish turns in the leading digital assets.
While the present Bitcoin price is far from its all-time high, the experts’ predictions suggest the digital asset could surpass its 2021 levels. Importantly, the spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to give exposure to customers in the traditional space. According to a Reuters report, an ETF approval is expected to draw in as much as $3 billion from investors in the first few days of trading and pull in billions more afterward.
A Gemini report noted that the ETF approval would open the $36.7 trillion retirement fund market to digital assets. The firm noted that investing in Bitcoin has remained out of reach for a vast majority of investment and retirement accounts. However, the influx of reputed large institutional firms would reassure investors to dabble into the ecosystem.
Furthermore, Gemini predicted that the broader crypto ecosystem, which spans several use cases and projects, would also benefit from this. While noting a price correlation between Bitcoin and other cryptos, the firm said it anticipates, alongside a BTC surge, an acceleration in commercial activities related to altcoins, DeFi, and Web3 assets. Gemini also projects bullish upsides in companies operating within those industries.
Certain Crypto Circles Unconvinced
Despite the potential for an ETF to legitimize Bitcoin as an institutional-grade investment, not all market participants are equally excited. Reuters reported that certain heavyweights in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space, including ProShares, Amplify Investments, and Roundhill, have steered clear of launching a Bitcoin ETF.
According to the report, many of the firms worry that the field is too crowded and demand may not be as strong as expected. Furthermore, the companies complained that the regulatory and marketing costs were too high.
Will Crypto Wipe 2022 Losses?
With speculations pointing to January as the earliest date for an ETF approval, the crypto market has earmarked 2024 as the year that erases previous price losses. Indeed, the 2022 crypto winter, precipitated by several institutional collapses, was what followed the 2021 bull run.
During that time, confidence in the crypto market dampened as regulatory scrutiny picked up. The regulatory concerns spilled over into this year, with noted crypto founders such as Binance’s Changpeng Zhao facing criminal convictions for anti-money laundering law violations. Terra Luna’s Do Kwon has yet to face charges and is expected to be extradited to the United States or South Korea. At present, crypto market capitalization sits at $1.4 trillion, significantly lower than its ATH of over $3 trillion. A Bitcoin surge beyond $100K, alongside a broader bull market run, may likely push the market cap beyond the $3 trillion levels seen in the previous bull cycle.
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