- Bitcoin shows consistent post-halving price patterns across 2012, 2016, 2020, and now 2024 cycles
- Each halving cycle has produced higher peaks despite temporary downturns and extended consolidation periods
- Technical indicators suggest current price action closely tracks historical cycle beginnings, contradicting “this time is different” narratives
Bitcoin’s price path after the 2024 halving appears to mirror historical patterns, suggesting another potential bull run is on the horizon. This observation is based on the charts tracking BTC price movement after the 2012, 2016, 2020, and the current 2024 halvings.
While some analysts have claimed Bitcoin is “de-correlating from prior cycles,” visual evidence shared by Binance’s former CEO CZ strongly contradicts this view. Each halving cycle exhibits a distinctive upward trend following initial consolidation periods, with each cycle showing progressively higher baseline prices and peaks despite varying market conditions.
Historical Patterns: The 300-400 Day Mark and Breakout Potential
The similarities between cycles become clearer when examining price behavior roughly 300-400 days after each halving, marked by pink arrows in the chart.
These points consistently precede major upward price movements, suggesting Bitcoin could be set for another significant breakout phase in the coming months. CZ, while highlighting the obvious pattern, responded humorously, “I don’t know how to read charts, but…”
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Bitcoin’s Supply-Driven Surge: Halving’s Power Over External Forces
What makes this cycle particularly intriguing is that Bitcoin continues to follow its established post-halving behavior despite significantly different macroeconomic conditions, regulatory environments, and institutional involvement compared to previous halvings.
This suggests the asset’s fundamental supply-reduction mechanism remains the dominant price influence regardless of external factors.
Bitcoin’s $80K Test: Will History Repeat for a Fourth Bull Run?
As for the price action, Bitcoin continues to trade in the red, at $80,188 at press time. Investors are anxious to see if the cryptocurrency can break its losing streak and initiate a recovery.
Despite concerns over potential consolidation, experts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, stressing that the bull cycle is not over. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju reiterated, “I’m bullish. The bull cycle is not over.”
Related: Bitcoin’s Recovery: Analyst Zeroes in on Key Liquidity Factor
For investors, the historical pattern provides a compelling backdrop for Bitcoin’s current price movements, hinting at an upward trajectory if history were to repeat a fourth consecutive cycle.
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