- The Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) could launch this week with a 93% approval chance.
- Whales holding 1M–10M DOGE have accumulated 10.91B coins, a four-year high.
- Santiment warns rallies may be speculation-driven rather than fundamental.
Santiment’s Brian Quinlivan said the first Dogecoin exchange-traded fund could debut this week in the United States.
In a detailed post, the analyst noted that the Rex-Osprey DOGE ETF, which will trade with the ticker DOJE, carries an estimated 93% likelihood of approval. It stands to be the first Dogecoin-focused ETF in the U.S. market.
Dogecoin ETF Approval Nears
The Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF is a joint effort between REX Shares and Osprey Funds. Both firms have experience in the crypto ETF market, including a product tied to Solana.
They are using a regulatory pathway known as the “40 Act” to speed up approval. This process is a more efficient route than the traditional filings used for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Going live, DOJE would allow U.S. investors to gain exposure to Dogecoin’s price movements through traditional brokerage accounts. Investors would not need to hold or store the cryptocurrency directly. This lowers barriers for those wary of managing digital assets.
Quinlivan says the launch would represent a milestone for meme coins, which have often been dismissed as speculative or novelty assets.
Are Whales Front-Running the DOGE ETF News?
On-chain data shows significant activity among Dogecoin whales. Santiment reported that wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE have accumulated 10.91 billion coins, equal to 7.23% of the circulating supply. This is the largest level in nearly four years.
The trend began after a price decline on August 25. Accumulation accelerated in early September as the likelihood of ETF approval increased. Quinlivan noted that whale behavior suggests strategic positioning ahead of the launch, although profit-taking during initial rallies has been common.
Market Reaction and Speculation
Dogecoin’s price climbed in mid-August when early rumors of the ETF surfaced. That rally was short-lived, as whales sold into the strength and prices retreated. Traders who entered during the initial spike were left at local highs.
In recent days, speculation has returned, with smaller rallies tied to renewed ETF approval chatter. Quinlivan said demand from both retail and institutional traders could rise if the ETF launches this week. However, he cautioned that much of the activity is still based on anticipation rather than confirmed developments.
A Dogecoin ETF could signal broader acceptance of meme coins within traditional finance. Quinlivan believes the approval could pave the way for additional products tied to similar assets.
Dogecoin’s Current Price Action and What Happens Next
Dogecoin is trading near $0.2378, a 2.4% rise in the past day, consolidating within a multi-month symmetrical triangle as support at $0.21 meets resistance around $0.24–$0.25.
Related: Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction: Rising ETF Odds Spark Bullish Momentum
Technicals show tightening price action, with RSI at 55 and momentum improving, while futures open interest has climbed 14.5% to $3.81 billion and options activity has surged more than 260%. A breakout above $0.24 could target $0.25–$0.27, while failure risks a pullback toward $0.21.
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