- Dogecoin and Cardano have strong odds of ETF approval in 2025, with 80% and 75% chances respectively.
- Dogecoin benefits from CFTC-regulated futures and broader filings, while Cardano lacks futures.
- Even with approval, demand remains uncertain as investors remain heavily focused on Bitcoin over altcoins.
In a surprising turn for the crypto market, analysts now believe Dogecoin (DOGE), the original meme coin, has a clearer path to a spot ETF approval in the U.S. than Cardano (ADA), a leading smart contract platform. The analysis highlights the complex and often counter-intuitive nature of the U.S. regulatory landscape for digital assets..
According to new data from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas, the market is pricing in an 80% probability of a spot Dogecoin ETF approval in 2025, while Cardano’s odds sit slightly lower at 75%.
This comes as the market turns its attention to which altcoins will follow Bitcoin and Ethereum in securing their own exchange-traded funds. When a market participant questioned whether altcoins like Solana would attract the same kind of capital inflow that Bitcoin did with its ETF launch, Balchunas responded some inflows are to be expected.
The Case for a Dogecoin ETF: From Meme to Regulated Commodity
Dogecoin, once viewed as a speculative asset driven by internet culture, is now seen as being on relatively firm regulatory ground. A key factor is that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) already regulates Dogecoin futures, which adds to its credibility as a commodity, a crucial status for ETF approval.
Several major asset managers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, have already filed for spot Dogecoin ETFs. The final SEC deadline for a decision on these applications is set for October 17, 2025.
Based on the chart above, DOGE trades at $0.1984, up almost 4% in the past 24 hours. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads a value of 49.39, just around the neutral territory, indicating that the bulls and the bears are matched. The MACD indicator shows a bullish divergence, suggesting a massive DOGE rally.
Related: Is This the Perfect Time for Altcoins? Expert Predictions on the Next Crypto Move
Cardano’s Path to an ETF: A More Cautious Outlook
While Cardano has long been positioned as a top contender in the DeFi space, its path to an ETF appears slightly more challenging. So far, only Grayscale has filed for a spot Cardano ETF. Although analysts believe the SEC is also likely to view ADA as a commodity, it does not yet have a CFTC-regulated futures market, a key distinction from Dogecoin.
The final SEC decision deadline for the Cardano application is October 23, 2025.
As per the chart above, from early February to early March, ADA experienced a significant decline, breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating strong bearish momentum. Following this sharp drop, the price entered a period of consolidation and gradual recovery through late March and April. During this time, the price largely stayed within the Bollinger Bands.
Related: INJ’s Price Surges Over 5% After Canary Capital Files for a Staked Injective ETF
Further, the Balance of Power indicator, fluctuating around the zero line throughout this period, suggests a relatively balanced struggle between buyers and sellers, with no sustained strong buying or selling pressure dominating for extended periods.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
