- Realized Cap rising while prices stay flat signals ongoing bearish market pressure.
- High sell pressure limits price gains despite substantial capital inflows.
- Historical trends show shorter bear cycles and increasing long-term market resilience.
Bitcoin might face extended bearish pressure over the coming months, warns CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, pointing to specific on-chain signals even as capital continues to flow into the asset. He cautions that market data reveals a lack of positive price momentum despite these inflows, a pattern historically linked to bearish crypto cycles.
Ju pointed to the growing gap between Realized Cap and Market Cap as a primary indicator. Realized Cap measures the total capital invested in Bitcoin based on actual on-chain transactions. Market Cap, conversely, is simply current price times circulating supply, heavily influenced by exchange trading.
When Realized Cap rises while Market Cap stays flat or falls, Ju explains, it signals that new money entering the network is being absorbed by existing selling pressure, preventing price increases.
Related: Finding the Floor: Here Are Key BTC/ETH Support Levels Post-Plunge
How Long Could This Bearish Phase Last?
Historically, similar divergences between Realized Cap and Market Cap have preceded prolonged bear markets.
Based on these prior cycles, Ju estimated a market reversal could take a minimum of six months to materialize if this pattern persists, suggesting short-term price recoveries remain unlikely. He noted environments where large inflows or high trading volumes (hypothetically, even near levels like $100,000) fail to lift prices strongly indicate underlying sell pressure dominating demand.
What Does Long-Term Data Suggest About Resilience?
Providing broader context, Ju also referenced a long-term CryptoQuant chart tracking Bitcoin’s Market Cap since 2012. This chart shows alternating bull and bear phases, with bull cycles historically lengthening and contributing to overall growth. While a bearish sentiment zone appeared in late 2022, its intensity appears lessened through 2025 compared to previous cycles.
Related: CryptoQuant Analyst Says Bitcoin Likely Consolidating Before Next Leg Up
The chart confirms Bitcoin’s market cap crossed $1 trillion in 2024 and has largely maintained that level despite recent corrections. While bear phases occur, they seem shorter and less disruptive over Bitcoin’s lifespan, suggesting long-term resilience.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
