ETH Exchange Outflows Hit $415M; Price Tests $3.8K Support

$415 Million in Exchange Outflows Tighten ETH Liquidity as Traders Defend $3.8K; Price Target $4.1K Today

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ETH outflows today Arkham flags $415M as price tests $3.8K and eyes a $4K reclaim
  • Arkham identifies about $415 million in ether withdrawn from wallets linked to Kraken and BitGo on Oct. 17, 2025. Several market analysts describe the flow as “BitMine accumulation.” Coin Edition has not independently verified the wallet owner.
  • ETH trades near $3,900. Traders mark $3,850 to $3,800 as first support; a close back above $4,000 to $4,100 signals momentum recovery.
  • Tom Lee reiterates a $10,000 to $12,000 year-end 2025 target for ETH on Bankless, contingent on easier liquidity, broader institutional participation, and continued scaling.

Arkham’s trackers surfaced about $415 million in ETH moving off exchange-linked addresses. The flows line up with Kraken and BitGo-associated wallets, pointing to large withdrawals rather than exchange inflows. The pattern fits a day where risk appetite has been thin and inventory has shifted away from order books.

Where the ETH moved and why attribution matters

Two clusters handled the bulk of the size – one was tied to Kraken, and the other to BitGo-custodied balances, per Arkham’s view. Traders labeled this as “BitMine accumulation,” but wallet ownership has not been independently verified in public on-chain notes. 

The safer read would be that more ETH left exchanges than entered, which tightens spot liquidity and can amplify the next ETH markets’ move.

Related: Ethereum Needs to Reach $5K to Ignite Altcoin Season, Says Benjamin Cowen

ETH price today and levels that guide execution

ETH price trades near $3,910 today, with traders marking $3,850–$3,800 as the first ETH support levels today. On the topside, ETH price today between $4,000–$4,100 improves structure and shifts focus to higher resistance zones. 

If the ETH exchange withdrawals point to custody or staking preparation, circulating supply on exchange will fall, and intraday moves can extend faster once price momentum builds.

Tom Lee’s $10,000 to $12,000 ETH prediction and what would confirm it

On a recent Bankless appearance, Tom Lee repeated a $10,000 to $12,000 ether target for the end of 2025. That path requires easier financial liquidity, continued Layer-2 growth, steady developer activity, and widening institutional demand that goes beyond bitcoin-only mandates. 

A persistent decline in exchange reserves like the one Arkham brought out earlier, combined with expanding staking and custody balances, would support Tom Lee’s ETH price prediction should quantitative easing take effect in Q4 2025.

What can change ETH price setup today

Traders are glued into the funding rates, open interest, and basis for squeeze risk. They are also tracking exchange-reserve trends and any signs of spot-led buying on U.S. venues. 

If ether holds $3,850 to $3,800 while outflows continue, the range stays constructive. A close back above $4,000 turns attention to $4,100 and the next resistance band. A clean loss of $3,800 weakens the range and leaves thinner liquidity below until stronger bids appear.

Related: Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Attempts Recovery as Open Interest Hits $46.8B

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