After a parabolic breakout that sent Ethereum price from $2,800 to nearly $3,850 in just two weeks, the rally is showing early signs of exhaustion. Ethereum price today is consolidating near $3,758 after multiple failed intraday pushes above $3,800. With volatility compressing and volume fading, traders are watching for a decision from bulls at the upper trend channel.
What’s Happening With Ethereum’s Price?
The daily structure shows ETH facing friction just under the upper Bollinger Band at $4,151, which historically aligns with local peaks. Candlesticks are printing smaller bodies and shadows near $3,835 resistance, confirming supply pressure.
Bollinger Bands remain wide, reflecting high historical volatility. However, the price is beginning to stall near the top of the channel. All exponential moving averages (20/50/100/200) are currently stacked bullishly below, with EMA20 and EMA50 near $3,508 and $3,090 respectively. Any dip to this zone could attract aggressive buyers.
Trendlines from the second chart show a breakout above the $2,800 range base, with Ethereum now retesting the upper boundary of a rising parallel structure. The key support zone for bulls lies near $3,516, while the breakout origin rests around $3,090. A clean loss of these areas may invalidate the current impulse leg.
Why Ethereum Price Going Down Today?
Despite strong macro bullish structure, short-term selling is emerging. On the 30-minute chart, Ethereum price action has broken into a declining channel, now oscillating between $3,820 resistance and $3,720 support. The RSI on this timeframe has dipped to 34.3, suggesting intraday weakness and a bearish bias unless reclaimed above 50. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is at $3,798, with ETH trading below it.
The Supertrend level at $3,709 is key. A breakdown below this could trigger a short-term liquidation move toward $3,516 or even $3,300. This reflects bearish sentiment in the short term. Meanwhile, the DMI (Directional Movement Index) on the 4-hour chart shows ADX losing strength while -DI is curling upward, indicating that buyers are losing control of the trend.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is elevated at 76.18, indicating overbought conditions and possible distribution. The Parabolic SAR has also flipped closer to price, hinting at reversal risk if bulls fail to defend the $3,700 to $3,709 Supertrend zone.
From a flows perspective, the spot net outflow stands at -137.71M as of July 30. This marks significant profit-taking and supports the current cooldown in Ethereum price.
ETH Price Prediction: Short-Term Outlook (24H)
If ETH holds the $3,709 zone and reclaims $3,800 with volume, a push toward $3,940 and $4,000 becomes likely. However, failure to stay above the VWAP at $3,798 raises the risk of a breakdown toward $3,516. Below that, the $3,090 to $3,100 range acts as a structural validation zone.
A confirmed loss of the 30-minute channel support and rejection from VWAP would open the path to a deeper retracement near $3,300. Given the fading MACD, bearish RSI signals, and outflow pressure, Ethereum price today appears vulnerable to short-term downside unless bulls reclaim key levels quickly.
Ethereum Price Forecast Table: July 31, 2025
| Indicator / Zone | Level / Signal |
| Ethereum price today | $3,758 |
| Resistance 1 | $3,800 |
| Resistance 2 | $3,940 to $4,000 |
| Support 1 | $3,709 (Supertrend, 4H) |
| Support 2 | $3,516 (Bollinger mid-band) |
| EMA Cluster (20/50/100/200) | $3,508 / $3,090 / $2,793 / $2,673 |
| VWAP (30-min) | $3,798.5 (Short-term resistance) |
| RSI (30-min) | 34.3 (Bearish) |
| MFI (Daily) | 76.2 (Overbought, risk of profit-taking) |
| DMI (4H) | -DI curling up, weakening trend |
| Spot Netflow | -$137.71M (outflow, bearish pressure) |
| SAR (Daily) | $3,552 (trailing support) |
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