- ETH holds steady above $4,300 with $4,250 emerging as the critical support level.
- Trading volume jumped 65%, reflecting stronger market activity.
- Analysts see parallels between ETH’s correction and Bitcoin’s 2020 cycle.
Ethereum is holding steady above the $4,300 mark, but the market’s attention is now fixated on a critical support level just below the current price: $4,250. While ETH trades at $4,357, analysts are pointing to the $4,250 zone as the key battlefield that will determine the next major trend.
A massive 65% surge in trading volume shows that big money is positioning for a decisive move, with compelling bull and bear cases now colliding.
What Makes the $4,250 Level So Important?
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated on X that $4,250 is a critical price floor for ETH. The technicals back this up: the 20-day and 50-day EMAs stand at $4,347 and $4,088 respectively, acting as major zones of support and resistance.
If ETH maintains momentum above the 20-day EMA, bulls will likely attempt to retest higher resistance levels. A breakdown, however, could expose the market to deeper retracements.
Related: Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction for Today, September 9
The Bull Case: Is This a Repeat of Bitcoin’s 2020 Rally?
Adding to the bull case, analyst Ted Pillows drew a compelling parallel between Ethereum’s current structure and Bitcoin’s performance in its 2020 cycle.
He noted that in 2020, Bitcoin corrected around 25%-30% after hitting a new all-time high before launching into a parabolic Q4 rally.
Ethereum, now down 16% from its recent highs, appears to be mirroring this exact pattern. If ETH follows the same path, a correction to the $3,500-$3,700 range is possible, which aligns with its bull market support band.
From there, traders would anticipate a sharp reversal followed by a strong rally heading into the final quarter of the year.
The Bear Case: Does a Rising Wedge Pattern Signal a Breakdown?
Looking at the daily chart, ETH appears to be trading within a rising wedge pattern, a structure that often precedes either a breakout or a breakdown depending on volume confirmation.
The upper boundary of the wedge is converging near the $4,700-$4,800 region, which coincides with the upper Bollinger Band. This makes $4,784 a critical resistance level where sellers are likely to re-emerge.
On the downside, the wedge’s support trendline intersects with the $4,200-$4,300 region, which overlaps with Ali Martinez’s highlighted level, making this zone essential for bulls to defend.
Meanwhile, the RSI currently sits around 52, suggesting neutral conditions with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers.
The MACD, however, reveals waning bullish momentum as the signal line threatens to cross over, which could lead to further short-term weakness.
Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is slightly negative, hinting at mild capital outflows from the asset.
So, What Are the Key Levels to Watch?
In a bullish scenario, holding above the $4,250-$4,300 region would allow ETH to gather strength for another push toward $4,700-$4,800, and if broken decisively, the next psychological target would lie near $5,000.
On the other hand, a bearish breakdown below $4,250 could accelerate selling pressure, dragging ETH toward the $3,700-$3,500 range where its bull market support band lies.
If the cycle analogy holds true, the coming months could mark the last significant shakeout before ETH embarks on its anticipated parabolic rally in Q4.
Related: Ethereum Whales Accumulate $230M as Exchange Balances Turn Negative
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