- Ethereum is 4% shy of its $4,891 ATH, fueled by strong bullish market sentiment.
- Polymarket bettors see a 76% chance that Ethereum hits new highs before August 31.
- Record $35.5 billion futures open interest could fuel volatile ETH price moves.
Polymarket users are betting heavily on Ethereum reaching new all-time highs before August 31, with the prediction market showing 76% probability for the milestone. ETH trades at $4,670 at press time, positioning the cryptocurrency just 4.4% shy of reclaiming its all-time high.
The optimistic sentiment comes as multiple technical indicators suggest building pressure for an upward breakout. Performance data shows ETH gaining 9.5% in the past 24 hours, with weekly gains reaching 29% and monthly increases hitting 52.6%. The one-year performance stands at 77.8%.
Futures Market Shows Record Leverage Accumulation
Glassnode data revealed that ETH futures open interest has printed a new all-time high of around $35.5 billion. This concentration of leverage across trading venues creates conditions for amplified price movements as positioning builds.
Short sellers have faced pressure, with approximately $66 million in liquidations occurring on August 12 when prices reached $4,620. This event ranks as the second-largest short liquidation in 2025, indicating bearish positions are under severe stress.
Analyst Max Crypto has warned that $1.3 billion in short positions face liquidation if Ethereum establishes a new all-time high. With ETH only a few hundred dollars away from its ATH, this massive liquidation event could accelerate any upward breakout through forced buying.
Market Analysts Draw Bitcoin Parallels
Analyst Ted has compared current Ethereum positioning to Bitcoin’s setup at $19,000 in 2020. This was when BTC subsequently delivered a 3x rally within three months after breaking to new highs. He suggests Ethereum could achieve similar or better performance given current institutional inflow patterns.
The comparison highlights how major cryptocurrencies often experience explosive moves following all-time high breakouts. Bitcoin’s historical pattern of quick appreciation after establishing new records provides a template for potential Ethereum performance.
Daily institutional flows into Ethereum products have reached billions in volume, and this has created sustained buying pressure that could support extended rallies. This institutional participation differs from previous cycles dominated by retail speculation.
Technical Setup Primes for Breakout Attempt
The mix of high leverage, short liquidation risks, and institutional flows creates optimal conditions for attempting new all-time highs. Ethereum’s proximity to record levels means relatively small buying pressure could trigger cascading effects.
Market participants are closely monitoring the $4,891 level, which represents Ethereum’s previous all-time high established during the 2021 bull run. Breaking above this resistance could unlock upside potential through technical and psychological factors.
Related: Ethereum Price Inches Closer to $5,000 as Institutions Pour $1 Billion into ETH
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